In just a few days, the two week cease-fire in the Iran war will come to an end. What happens then is anybody’s guess, that is, if you’re not politically or militarily connected to the power-brokers who call the shots. What is certain, however, is that all the warring parties have been feverishly restocking their depleted stores of bombs, missiles, drones, planes, and other assorted war-waging materiel just in case the shooting starts all over again. I am quite sure it will. This time around, if it does, I would expect an all-out, no holds barred, assault on Iran and a reciprocal fire aimed at Israel, the GCC, and any US assets in the region.

Whatever happens, shoot or go home, there is one serious side-effect to this war which is not going to go away anytime soon, i.e., the shortage of oil around the world which has been caused by the Hormuz Strait closure and which will not be restored to any former sense of normalcy for months, at the very least. Larry Johnson sums it up quite well in this interview with Danny Davis. Donald Trump might put it like this, if he was to think about it.

“Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war cannot be tolerated. It was closed by Iran because we attacked them and now we’re going to attack them again to force it open. This war has already caused immense financial and social damage world-wide, but we have to continue it because Iran is at war with us.”

In other words, we have to wreck the world economy to save the world. Shades of Viet Nam.

The Strait was closed to traffic at the start of the war and, except for a few isolated instances, no oil tankers have transited it since then. Now, assume that a fully loaded tanker leaves the Strait headed for China or Japan, a voyage of 6500 +/- miles and travels at an average speed of 15 miles per hour, 24 hours per day. The voyage would take 433.33 hours or about 3 weeks to complete the trip. This means that all the tankers which left the Strait at the start of the war have already reached their port destination and unloaded the cargo. Plan a week to offload and another three weeks to make the return voyage means that a round trip could be made in seven weeks, or just about the length of time of the war so far.

The problem, under this scenario, is that there are no more tankers en route with cargo since none are allowed through the Strait and, even if these tankers could reload and ship out immediately, say another week to turn around, it would mean four more weeks before they arrive again in China or Japan. This means at least two months with no oil shipping from the Persian Gulf which will be absolutely disastrous to these countries (and all others dependent) and the effects will be felt around the world, including the US which (supposedly) is self-sufficient in oil. Not exactly true, but that’s another story. For a good description of how this affects the societies on the ground around the world, see here. Even if the Strait was fully opened immediately, there would still be that time lapse when no oil moved and the consequences of that will linger for a long time. If the active shooting restarts, the problem will only get worse.

Net result: cost of oil going through the roof and everything else which is derived from it rising in lockstep. We may very well see gasoline at $10 or $12 per gallon before this is done, which will basically cut the foundation from under the world economy and it will fall like a stone. A very large stone. Recall the lyrics which John Fogerty of CCR sang in the classic, “I see a bad moon rising. I see trouble on the way.”

Well done, Mr. Trump.

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Massive dislocations in society, both public and private, are coming, like the predicted return of Jesus by so many people, soon, real soon. Those changes will probably get here first and will result in major alterations in the way the average person lives. They will drive the switch in thinking from “What can I buy which will make me feel better about myself?” to “How can I stay alive and feed my family today?”. In short, a paradigm change in the consideration of what is truly important. We need to be ready for that, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually, and the best place to start our preparations is found in this.

"Trust in the LORD with all your heart 
And do not lean on your own understanding;
In all your ways acknowledge Him,
And He shall direct your paths."
-- Proverbs 3:5-6