Today, Friday, June 19, 2026, the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US to begin negotiations to end the war will be officially signed in Versailles1, France. Note that this does not mean that the war is over, as many people assume, but only that the parties are going to talk about an end to the conflict and work toward an agreement which both can live with. This MoU is the prelude, so to speak, with the intention of allowing a truce to exist for the next 60 days, while they discuss the situation. At any time and for any reason, either party can withdraw from the negotiation, completely derailing the “peace” process. It is too early to determine if an actual cessation of the war can be achieved, but, at least the principals are talking to each other, which is a good thing.
Following is the complete text of the MoU as I have seen it.
1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above-mentioned and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations, in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
13. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
The most important section of this document, in my opinion, is the first one, which explicitly calls for an end to the fighting everywhere in the Middle East, including Lebanon, which is under constant attack by Israel. Notably, Israel was not privy to the terms of the MoU before it was announced and had no veto power over it, which produced intense fury within its government.
As I understand it, the MoU is a declaration to Israel that their hostile and aggressive actions will no longer be tolerated, which, if the decree stands, will be the first time since the country was imposed on the world that they have been ordered to refrain. The main responsibility for enforcing the rule will fall on the shoulders of Donald Trump, who cannot be trusted to hold the line. I am extremely skeptical that he will do so, which opens up the possibility that Iran will attack Israel if the hostilities in Lebanon do not stop. If Iran does this, then Trump will have to make a decision as to whether to retaliate against Iran and open up the next phase of the war, or to stand down and allow Israel to take a well-deserved beating. If the kinetic war resumes, it will, more than likely, become an all-out battle with every possible weapon used, regardless of the destruction, up to and possibly including nuclear bombs. The end result may be the complete destruction of the entire region and, consequently, the loss of twenty percent of the world’s oil, which will drive the price of energy into the stratosphere and the world into an economic depression. This, of course, is a worst-case scenario, but it never hurts to have a clear understanding of the possibilities and to prepare for them, hoping that something better comes out of it.
https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/iran-defeats-the-us-reflections
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/06/no_author/trumps-art-of-the-debacle/
Out of the remainder of the sections, it seems clear that Iran will gain the most without having to give up much ground, as in:
- The Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war, will reopen to ship traffic and Iran will retain control and negotiate terms of passage with Oman. Iran will be primarily responsible for the removal of mines. The US will remove its blockade and clear its ships out of the area completely.
- No tolls will be charged for 60 days, which is the length of the MoU, but may be imposed after that pending the final accord.
- Iran promises not to pursue nor develop a nuclear bomb, which was its position before the war, so it is not giving up anything on that count. The status of the enriched uranium will be negotiated and will probably come under the purview of the IAEA, but this was already in place with the JCPOA agreement which Trump tore up in 2019. No net loss for Iran, no net win for Trump.
- Sections 2, 6, 7, 9, 10, and 11 are huge concessions by the US and can be seen as victories by Iran.
If this is maintained all the way through to a final agreement and the war ends, the conclusion must be made that Iran has emerged as the regional hegemon, Israel has been demoted to a nasty, quarreling neighbor, and the US has lost an expensive war, costing it a fortune in dollars, reputation, good will, demonstrating to the world that it can be resisted and beaten.
The world will never be the same.
- Versailles is the same city where Germany was forced to surrender to Great Britain and France to end WW1, the war to end all wars. The terms of the surrender were so onerous that Germany was financially destroyed, creating social conditions so severe that Adolf Hitler was able to rise from the ashes and begin the march toward WW2. ↩︎












