I just finished reading an article by Larry Johnson on the Unz Review, at the end of which he linked to an interview with Lena Petrova on the current conditions in both Iran and Ukraine/Russia. While watching this, a thought came to me and I posted this comment at the article.
Watching the interview above with Lena Petrova, this thought came to me.
After the Soviet Union collapsed and disintegrated in 1991, there was an enormous effort made to pull all the nuclear weapons, which were dispersed throughout the various republics, and transfer physical control of them to either Russia or the United States. This was done for one reason alone–to prevent any rogue individual state to attack or threaten to attack any other state with the weapons under their control. As far as I know, it was a successful mission.
At the time, Russia and the other former Soviet states were under tremendous pressure to open their economies to the predations of oligarchic businesses affiliated with the West to pillage and steal natural resources and bleed them dry, all for the profit and benefit of the West. Remember Mikhail Khordokovsky of Yukos, et al. When Putin came to power, he put a stop to that and demanded that Russians of all stripes work together for the benefit of Russia, regardless of the wealth temptations which existed and broke the back of the oligarchs. Russia was in an existential crisis then and it took desperate measures to survive and move beyond that. Today, it is in a far different, far better position.
Now, transfer that scenario to Iran with this question in mind.
Keep in mind that Iran’s missile/drone inventory is its equivalent of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. Suppose, just suppose, that the US/Israeli push to defeat Iran actually is successful and Iran splinters into numerous small, disjointed, fractious statelets. Considering that the missile inventory which Iran allegedly possesses is spread all over the country, not concentrated in any particular area, the question arises as to who will control them and how they will be used. How would they be collected and placed under direct US control?
Further, since it is common knowledge that Iran has decentralized its command structure and military decisions are now being made at lower and lower levels, what is to prevent any one single commander or group from simply blasting off its missiles at any time toward any perceived enemy? What if the target is the Dimona nuclear plant in southern Israel, regional water desalinization plants, or major oil terminals? An aircraft carrier which has just steamed into the Persian Gulf? How would the US and Israel respond? With another bombing campaign? Sanctions? Blockades? Assassinations of top leadership which would further lower the chain of command?
It is quite certain that Israel’s goal is to destroy the Iranian state and introduce a chaotic and powerless political vacuum into the area for the purpose of allowing Israel to become the regional hegemon, but we have to consider the possibility that this chaos, if brought into being, might also mean the potential destruction of Israel itself, especially if Dimona is hit. It is also quite certain that the US goal is to seize control of the oil production and use it to squeeze the ultimate target–mainland China.
As you give, you will receive. Visit hell on others, hell will be brought to you. This might be termed a natural law of reciprocity and God works in mysterious ways to maintain the consistency and continuity of The Law.
This is pure speculation on my part. I am not making any forecasts.
I have a question for the big-shots and power-brokers who run US military and foreign policy. Have any of them considered this possibility? Have they run war games bringing this potential scenario into play? If not, why not? Aren’t they getting paid $$big bucks to look at all the risks? If they have thought about it, why have they decided to push ahead anyway and run the risk? Is this what they actually consider to be tolerable? Or, conversely, is their arrogance and trust in overwhelming military and economic power so great that they cannot conceive something so “laughable”?
If I was wearing the Iranian shoes, you can bet that I would contemplating this avenue of action and I’m willing to bet that there is someone, somewhere, in that country who already is planning it. Or something similar. Human nature being what it is, it is impossible to tell what might transpire, except that it will not be pleasant.
All is fair in love and war.
Poor Roger's Almanac 