I woke up this morning at 3:00 a.m. with a thought firmly fixed in my mind and had to write it down before I forgot it. Comes with gray hair, you know. The forgetting, I mean, and the more I practice it, the better I get at it. Or something like that.

Anyway, right off the bat, let me stress that this is pure speculation and nothing more. I don’t have a crystal ball nor access to the halls of power. While I hesitate to openly guess at what might happen in the US/Israel/Iran war in the next few weeks, it seems better to me that a “hope for the best, consider the worst” mentality is the best way to go. Therefore…

It’s only a few days before Donald Trump lands in Beijing to meet with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, over red carpets, state dinners, and very large tables, in what could be the most important head-to-head conference of the 21st century to date. They will have a lot to discuss over the next three days and many important decisions will be made with more postponed for further discussion and review. Nothing they talk about, however, will be as prominent and important as the war which has resulted in the near-total cessation of shipping into and out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is waiting with anticipation to see what these two world-movers/shakers produce to resolve that issue and it’s a better than even bet that action toward that end will happen within a few weeks after they shake hands for the last time in the obligatory photo-op.

I am certain of a few things. Xi will bring up the dire consequences which the closure/blockade of the strait has already had on the world economy and will urge that it be brought to an end without further delay. Trump will bring up all the reasons why he has to stay the course and bring Iran to the point of total capitulation, not least of which is his overweening pride and ego which cannot tolerate loss. Benjamin Netanyahu will be there, in spirit, at least, perched on Trump’s shoulder or maybe his cell phone, whispering into his ear constantly about pressing the issue without giving up any ground. All in all, I expect that the whole discussion will be one of intense negotiation to open up the strait and exactly how that is to be done.

I am also certain, even more so, that the warring parties (US/Israel/Iran) have spent the last few weeks of relative calm stocking up quickly and feverishly on their weaponry, getting ready to go at it again as soon as the light turns green, with the likely result being that Iran will be hit harder than ever before and will strike back with even more ferocity against Israel proper, the remaining US regional bases, and oil/water infrastructure in the “cooperating” GCC statelets, most notably United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Carnage, destruction, and death on a massive scale is expected.

As to the Xi-Trump process, I can imagine both parties laying out their respective cases in detail and, in the final summation, Xi turning to Trump and telling him in diplomatic couched language to “Do what you have to do, but get it done”, with reference to the opening of the strait. Trump, of course, in his own way will, as Simon and Garfunkel sang so beautifully, “…hear what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”

And then the phone call will go out with the order to “pull the trigger”. I hope I am wrong. I hope to God that I’m wrong, but it’s hard to be optimistic about this.

What are the possible scenarios which might play out in this high-level meeting?

1. Xi persuades Trump to cut his losses and vacate the war (and the region) for the good of the rest of the world AND Trump actually pays attention and follows the advice. This has about as much chance of happening as a snowball in hell retaining its shape and character.
2. Far more likely, Trump ignores the advice and launches the next wave of attacks, immediately or soon thereafter. This has numerous sub-scenarios:
   • Iran suffers an Iraqi-style “shock and awe” defeat and is bombed back into the Stone Age, leaving the US totally triumphant. The strait is opened forthwith and the pent-up traffic jockeys for position.
   • Iran hits back so hard that the US/Israeli tag team sue for peace and quit, surrendering the field of battle on Iran’s terms, and leaving the entire region in a state of chaos and disarray. The strait is opened forthwith but every ship passing through pays a toll to Iran.
   • After a few days, weeks, months of intense struggle, all sides are exhausted and have to stop and begin negotiating in earnest because the damage is too great, not only in the immediate region, but economically and financially world-wide. The upside to this is that humanity might actually learn something and take steps to avoid conflicts like this in the future. The downsides to this are:
     • Israel would be put into an existentially dangerous position and could invoke the “Sampson Option”, meaning that if it goes down, so too will its adversary. Nuclear bombs. Mushroom clouds over Tehran, in other words. I have no doubt that if this were to happen, the state of Israel would disappear from the map and might even be the catalyst ushering in a nuclear war between the states who possess the bombs.
     • Both Trump and Israel have a sordid record of negotiating in “good faith” while planning and executing duplicitous attacks, therefore, Trump would probably have to be removed from office and replaced by someone whom Iran could see as “more trust-worthy”, someone who could be depended on to act as promised, at least until the ink dried on the paper the agreement was written on.
3. Of course, in the end, we cannot discount the “conspiracy theory” that Xi and Trump are in cahoots, along with the behind-the-scenes puppet masters, to manipulate world events and that they will spend the time together hammering out the details, regardless who gets hurt in the process.

Whether I am right or not is debatable, but however it plays out will determine the course of world history. This is the last dance of the evening. No matter what happens, however, one thing is abundantly clear: Jeffrey Epstein is still smiling, like the Cheshire Cat, in the background.