Tag: strait of hormuz

End of the Ceasefire: Reality Approaches

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Today is the end of the two-week ceasefire in the war between Iran and the US conglomerate. Presumably, this was entered into to give the warring parties time to work out a satisfactory solution but because each came to the table with unconditional demands about which they would not compromise, nothing was accomplished. However, just the other day, Donald Trump unilaterally extended the “ceasefire” by an indefinite amount of time while issuing blustering threats about what would happen if Iran did not come to its senses and knuckle under, which really amounted to just another unconditional demand which was rejected immediately. No diplomacy there, no genuine desire to see the war ended, just more pompous, bully-pulpit Truth Social thundering denunciations and proclamations.

In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is still off limits to free passage by ships carrying oil, natural gas, urea, and multiple other products, all of which are essential to the continued health, wealth, and well-being of the entire world and may result in economic depression on a scale never before seen, eclipsing even that of the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but it is virtually certain that there will be very serious repercussions and consequences which may not be apparent now but will be evident in the near future.

“When disruptions strike the deepest layers of the global economy, their consequences do not arrive with spectacle but with delay. The most destabilizing feature of a systemic shock is often not its immediate violence but the deceptive calm that follows it. Cargo vessels already underway continue to reach their destinations, warehouses continue to dispatch inventory manufactured months earlier, and supermarket shelves remain stocked with goods produced in a previous season under conditions that no longer exist. This temporal inertia creates an illusion of stability at precisely the moment when the foundations of that stability are eroding. In the case of escalating conflict affecting energy infrastructure across the Gulf and maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the world is experiencing this quiet interval between cause and consequence, a period in which daily life appears normal while the logistical arteries of the global system are progressively constricted.” — https://billkloss.law.blog/2026/04/20/the-global-economy-is-closer-to-collapse-than-anyone-wants-to-admit/

It is not my intention to try to predict how the war will progress. There are more than enough experts and pundits who will do that. I can only guess (and am often wrong) as to what Trump, Netanyahu, & Co. will do next and can only speculate how the IRGC, Mullah, Inc. will respond, but I am certain of one thing. Like the Covid regime fraud and catastrophe which recently occurred (you haven’t forgotten that already, have you?), this instance of force and violence will not simply revert back to normal once the “dogs of war” are leashed and kenneled again. The consequences will be with us for a long time and it is simply foolish and naive to believe and act in a Pollyanna-like fashion. The future IS going to be different from what we are accustomed to and we should be focusing our attention, not on who wins the next election, but on getting our own personal affairs in order because we know that there’s a bad moon rising.

In the parable of the ten virgins, five wise and five foolish (Matthew 25: 1-13), Jesus gave fair warning that we should be alert, ready, and prepared for the eventual arrival of the bridegroom. This is taken by many people as a reference to His second coming and (presumed) Rapture of the Church before, during, or after all Hell breaks loose on Earth, which I will admit can be seen that way if you lean toward that theology. However, there is another interpretation which has nothing to do with that, but is extremely relevant to our situation: the “coming” mentioned in v. 13 can be seen as the natural and logical progression of events as seen from the perspective of a courtroom trial in which judgment is declared on actions already taken, guilt or innocence pronounced, and a sentence rendered on those found guilty. It is not necessary for the “bridegroom” to be physically present at all, but does promote the truth that there will be severe consequences for those who refuse to accept the truth that “…your sin will find you out…” and that we can live any way we like without dire repercussion. Put more simply, if you do this, that will happen. The Law of sowing and reaping cannot be ignored nor circumvented forever.

As individuals, cultures, societies, and nations, we have become accustomed to “falling asleep” and allowing situations to drift while we dreamed, more concerned with the promise of future benefits than with the reality of present-day living which guaranteed that devastating conditions would arise because of our preoccupation with the “good life” and worship of a System which proposed to give us anything we wanted if we would bow down and worship it. Which we did, for years, decades, and centuries. That System is now crumbling and will, in all probability, be replaced by something which may be far worse.

The upshot of this is that we cannot view this parable exclusively from a pie-in-the-sky sense of spirituality, but must consider what it means in the here-and-now. As a world, we have spent our time, treasure, and wealth, trying to gain power and control over others, regardless what it cost, and are now finding out that the verdict is not going to be issued in our favor. Everything we have done to build a McMansion for ourselves, a Tower of Babel from which we can never be dislodged, a prosperous future based on a sea of lies, is now collapsing into a quagmire of quicksand which is threatening to suck us under and there is nothing we can do about it, except to be personally prepared for it, filling our reservoir of “oil” so that we will not be caught flat-footed nor absent when the full effect of the sentence imposed falls on us.

Jesus is not coming back to snatch us out of the sinful mess which we have created for ourselves. There is not going to be any supernatural “rescue” of those who hold to a particular religious ideology and viewpoint. We are going to experience the full weight and consequences of our own rebellious actions against the Word of God which compels us to love our neighbors and our enemies as much as we love ourselves. Because we have refused this order, Judgement Day is upon us and what is coming is going to hurt. It is going to be painful It is going to cause enormous difficulty to our preconceived notions of what it means to be Christian and we can either submit to it in faith and trust, believing that our Father, Who administers the “spanking” has our best interests at heart OR we can continue to believe that a rich “daddy” will bail us out of any conceivable disaster which we have brought upon ourselves.

We can bear the suffering and change our ways OR we can fight back and resist which will only result in a more severe beating. This is the choice before us and we will make a decision–one way or the other. Choose wisely.

Destroying the Village to Save It: Modern Version

Roger Mitchell1 Comment

In just a few days, the two week cease-fire in the Iran war will come to an end. What happens then is anybody’s guess, that is, if you’re not politically or militarily connected to the power-brokers who call the shots. What is certain, however, is that all the warring parties have been feverishly restocking their depleted stores of bombs, missiles, drones, planes, and other assorted war-waging materiel just in case the shooting starts all over again. I am quite sure it will. This time around, if it does, I would expect an all-out, no holds barred, assault on Iran and a reciprocal fire aimed at Israel, the GCC, and any US assets in the region.

Whatever happens, shoot or go home, there is one serious side-effect to this war which is not going to go away anytime soon, i.e., the shortage of oil around the world which has been caused by the Hormuz Strait closure and which will not be restored to any former sense of normalcy for months, at the very least. Larry Johnson sums it up quite well in this interview with Danny Davis. Donald Trump might put it like this, if he was to think about it.

“Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war cannot be tolerated. It was closed by Iran because we attacked them and now we’re going to attack them again to force it open. This war has already caused immense financial and social damage world-wide, but we have to continue it because Iran is at war with us.”

In other words, we have to wreck the world economy to save the world. Shades of Viet Nam.

The Strait was closed to traffic at the start of the war and, except for a few isolated instances, no oil tankers have transited it since then. Now, assume that a fully loaded tanker leaves the Strait headed for China or Japan, a voyage of 6500 +/- miles and travels at an average speed of 15 miles per hour, 24 hours per day. The voyage would take 433.33 hours or about 3 weeks to complete the trip. This means that all the tankers which left the Strait at the start of the war have already reached their port destination and unloaded the cargo. Plan a week to offload and another three weeks to make the return voyage means that a round trip could be made in seven weeks, or just about the length of time of the war so far.

The problem, under this scenario, is that there are no more tankers en route with cargo since none are allowed through the Strait and, even if these tankers could reload and ship out immediately, say another week to turn around, it would mean four more weeks before they arrive again in China or Japan. This means at least two months with no oil shipping from the Persian Gulf which will be absolutely disastrous to these countries (and all others dependent) and the effects will be felt around the world, including the US which (supposedly) is self-sufficient in oil. Not exactly true, but that’s another story. For a good description of how this affects the societies on the ground around the world, see here. Even if the Strait was fully opened immediately, there would still be that time lapse when no oil moved and the consequences of that will linger for a long time. If the active shooting restarts, the problem will only get worse.

Net result: cost of oil going through the roof and everything else which is derived from it rising in lockstep. We may very well see gasoline at $10 or $12 per gallon before this is done, which will basically cut the foundation from under the world economy and it will fall like a stone. A very large stone. Recall the lyrics which John Fogerty of CCR sang in the classic, “I see a bad moon rising. I see trouble on the way.”

Well done, Mr. Trump.

Massive dislocations in society, both public and private, are coming, like the predicted return of Jesus by so many people, soon, real soon. Those changes will probably get here first and will result in major alterations in the way the average person lives. They will drive the switch in thinking from “What can I buy which will make me feel better about myself?” to “How can I stay alive and feed my family today?”. In short, a paradigm change in the consideration of what is truly important. We need to be ready for that, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually, and the best place to start our preparations is found in this. 

"Trust in the LORD with all your heart 
And do not lean on your own understanding;
In all your ways acknowledge Him,
And He shall direct your paths."
-- Proverbs 3:5-6

Don’t Cross These Red Lines

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

From an article on Zero Hedge:

Trump’s 6 Red Lines

Fox News reports that Vice President Vance’s final offer delivered to the Iranian delegation in Islamabad includes the following “red lines.”

  1. End all uranium enrichment
  2. Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities 
  3. Retrieve highly enriched uranium 
  4. Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies
  5. End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
  6. Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage

Needless to say, Iran refused to agree. 

Oh-kay! Translation below.

Trump: “End all uranium enrichment.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable. Besides, we don’t have any nuclear enrichment facilities anymore since you “obliterated” them last year in the 12-day war. Remember? Do we need to play the clips?”

Trump: “Retrieve Surrender highly enriched uranium.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies.” Iran: “We have already proposed this as a condition, but that will have to include Israel as well. Without Israel, this is not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.” Iran: “What funding is this? We can’t even afford to pay our own people since our currency is worthless. We know this because you are always bragging about destroying it.”

Trump: “Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable. That is our trump card (pardon the pun) and we intend to play it to the max. Someone is going to pay for this war and if you refuse to pony up for the damages caused, then the rest of the world will. Besides, and we hate to belabor the point, but before we were attacked, the Strait was fully and freely open to anyone who wanted to transit it. We did not start this trouble, but we are going to finish it.”

Needless to say, Team Trump got up and walked out.

Next move: Donald Trump. “Blockade the blockade.”

Wars begin. And they end.

Roger Mitchell1 Comment

Ho hum! Yawn! Another week of killing them over there so we don’t have to kill them over here.

It’s beginning to look like The Man, Mr. Donald J. Trump himself, is desperate and flailing about for any means of extricating the US from this ill-conceived and extremely stupid conflict he got himself into. Reading alternative news sources (not the Major Media Machine) gives me the understanding that the war is not going at all the way it was intended to when Trump and Older Brother Benjamin started it. A quick in-and-done result is long gone and Iran sounds resolute about not stopping until the menace of future attacks is completely obliterated and never to be attempted again.

Never is a very long time.

  • Strait of Hormuz passage subject to Iranian consent, none given to ships with US and/or Israeli ties.
  • Despite very public “begging”, many EU members have refused to join Trump’s “coalition of the willing” to reopen the Strait. Coalition of the Willing, of course, is a throwback to George H.W. Bush’s drive to wreak havoc on Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.
  • Why have 5000 Marines been ordered into the region? Boots on the ground? But, to effect a successful ground invasion would require multiple times that pitifully small number, perhaps on the order of 500, 000, which the American public will not tolerate without just cause, such as, a mushroom cloud rising over an American city. Shades of the Iraq war in 2003 under Bush’s son, Dubya.
  • US Navy ships pulling back beyond the range of Iran’s missiles for no apparent reason, although rumor has it that one aircraft carrier has been struck.
  • Oil refineries throughout the region burning. Oil prices spiking daily. The world is beginning to feel the effects as evidenced by Denmark’s driving population encouraged to stop driving. Just stop, will you?
  • Trump sounding more and more erratic, not only in speech, but also on his own Truth Social.
  • Scott Bessent summoned abruptly to the Oval Office while in the middle of an interview, returning two hours later appearing very shaken and incoherent. One possible reason why:
  • Rumors flying around that Netanyahu has been killed in the heat of battle. Brought down by a random shot. No official confirmation at this time, but speculation is growing. If this proves to be true, that would be reminiscent of another of Israel’s leaders being taken out in the same manner, but 3500 years or so earlier: Ahab.

Now a certain man drew a bow at random, and struck the king of Israel between the joints of his armor. So he said to the driver of his chariot, “Turn around and take me out of the battle, for I am wounded.” The battle increased that day; and the king was propped up in his chariot, facing the Syrians, and died at evening. The blood ran out from the wound onto the floor of the chariot. Then, as the sun was going down, a shout went throughout the army, saying, “Every man to his city, and every man to his own country!” So the king died… (1 Kings 22:34-37a)

History, it is said, does not repeat but rhymes, and it would be ironic (and rhythmic) if the war was ended because Dear Leader Bibi was indeed killed. Which brings us to the quote by Machiavelli seen at the top. Wars start whenever at the discretion of the leaders. They end when they end and usually for reasons unknown, unforeseen, and unanticipated at the initiation of the action.

When the first shot of battle is fired, the plan goes out the window.

When Johnny Goes Marching Off to War, Hurrah! Hurrah!

Roger Mitchell7 Comments

The title for this article is derived from the old song longing hopefully for the safe return of soldiers from the carnage of the American War between the States1 (1861-1865). What is usually not mentioned nor remembered is the fervor and celebration of just a few years earlier with which Johnny marched off to war and his family and friends, both North and South, cheered him on, gave parades in his honor, showered him with adulation, flowers, and kisses. “Hurrah! Hurrah! We’ll teach those scoundrels (Yankees, Rebs) something they won’t ever forget! Go get’m, Johnny! We’re behind you all the way.”

This, as I recall, was the atmosphere in America immediately after 9/11. It seemed that everyone couldn’t wait to go out and kick some a$$ for the destruction of the World Trade Center in 2001, and, to be perfectly honest, it didn’t really matter whether the actual perpetrators were brought to “justice” or not, as long as someone paid. The administration, George W. Bush presiding, took full advantage of the situation and launched two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, which were only ended years later, without ever resolving the question of “whodunit?”. Not that it mattered too much, anyway. The American public is driven by emotion rather than common sense and Congress is repeatedly admonished to “Don’t just sit there, do something.”, with the unspoken implication that it is better to do anything, even if it is wrong, than to contemplate their actions, consider the consequences, and make good choices.

Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941, the “day which will last in infamy”, was no different, except that there was no question about who had initiated the attack: Japan, the Rising Sun empire, and America lost no time in ramping up to a wartime footing in a massive spirit of revenge and retaliation, intent only on the destruction of those who dared to slap the face of Uncle Sam. Nothing was held back by the public, no sacrifice was too great, no cost was too much to bear for The Cause of total victory.

That was then, this is now.

Today, even as I write this, the tension in the Middle East is at a fever-pitch and rapidly escalating. The US may have already attacked Iran by the time you read this. Donald Trump is ramping up his threats and bullying tactics against Iran, demanding that the government undergo a regime change, that it Cease and Desist from any nuclear program, and that it immediately disarm by getting rid of its long range missiles. Basically, complete and abject surrender on Trump’s terms which, of course, the mullahs who lead Iran have rejected without any equivocation. What is Trump going to do if Iran doesn’t bow and scrape? Sign the order to attack? Or, TACO? We’ll know soon.

It seems to me (and polls regularly bear this out) that the mood of the country is against starting another war, especially one in the Middle East. People are genuinely tired of the “forever wars” and Trump capitalized on that sentiment when he was on the campaign trail, promising to end them. Political reality reigns supreme, however, as he conveniently forgot what he had promised to the voters only a short time earlier and started aggressively going after other countries, all smaller and weaker than the US. To date, in the first year of his second term, he has literally bombed ten countries, more than any of his predecessors. One of those was Iran at the end of the 12-day war with Israel last summer when he supposedly destroyed (obliterated was the word he used) Iran’s nuclear capabilities completely. I say supposedly, because, if that was the case, then why is there so much concern about Iran’s current nuclear program? Something doesn’t add up here and can be seen for what it is–a bald-faced lie.

Events like this which have occurred over the years wherein The Powers That Be have run roughshod over the interests of the common people do not build trust within society. Without that trust, institutions fail and when a society’s institutions fail, the society collapses. The ongoing Epstein scandal and the recent Covid scam have created an enormous (and growing) distrust among the populace which will not be reversed if Trump goes to war against Iran and gets the pants beaten off him. The only reason that trust and faith might be restored would be if he achieves complete and total victory immediately, without question, for the whole world to see and understand. Of course, once the victory laps, backslapping, and grandstanding were done, we’d be off to the next conquest, the next enemy which needed to be taken out as a matter of “national security”. Any guesses as to which one that would be? You get three and the first two don’t count, but I’ll give you a hint. It starts with an R, ends in A, and has six letters.

God help us!

If he is not immediately successful and Iran closes the strait of Hormuz to shipping, the price of oil will go through the roof, the financial Jenga tower known as derivatives will collapse, the Federal Reserve printing presses will be pushed to the limit resulting in hyper-inflation, and the world-wide system of fiat money will be scrapped in favor of a different one–the Great Reset, which we’ve all heard about. Probably something along this line of thinking will happen, that is, if Trump does not achieve complete and total victory with the first strike. Probably. It might happen if he does succeed. I’m only speculating.

Or, perhaps that has been the plan all along. Who knows?

In an article posted on Forum Geopolitica, Scott Ritter had this to say about the situation.

“A war on Iran will result in a disaster for all parties involved. There is no guarantee of success on the part of the United States and Israel, or failure on the part of Iran. There is a huge risk that this war will result in massive disruption of critical energy production capability in one of the most critical energy production regions in the world, triggering a massive energy security crisis that could collapse regional and global economies.

So, the key question is why Donald Trump, a man who ran on a platform of peace, willing to risk losing his political base on the eve of critical mid-term elections by betting on the successful execution of a short war with Iran that achieves the regime change outcome desired?

The simple answer is because he simply has no choice.”

Ritter goes on to explain why he thinks Trump has no choice and I can’t say that he’s wrong. The extremely high sunk costs of the military buildup almost guarantee that an action of some type will be taken, if for no other reason than to recoup some of the expense incurred. The greater reason, though, is that Trump’s ego, prestige, and reputation will take an enormous hit if he “chickens out” this time. Given the polling numbers on his sinking approval rating, it would likely lead to a loss by the Republican Party to the Democrats in November, virtually ensuring that impeachment hearings would be resurrected, this time with a fairly good chance of “throwing the rascal out”. Of course, if he does initiate the war and loses, the same scenario presents itself. In short, Trump is caught in a lose/lose situation. Heads I lose, tails you win, and there’s not much that he can do about it.

If Trump wins, he will be insufferable. If he loses, watch out. Either way, the American public will pay the price and my guess is that cheering Johnny as he marches off to war will become a highly unpopular act. As it should. Wars have a nasty habit of biting the hands which feed them.

  1. Technically speaking, not a civil war as the Confederate States were not trying to take over the existing government, but wanted to split from it and set up a separate one. It should more properly be called a secessionist movement which was put down by force. ↩︎