Tag: strait of hormuz

MoU on the Iran War: Final Result Unknown

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

Today, Friday, June 19, 2026, the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US to begin negotiations to end the war will be officially signed in Versailles1, France. Note that this does not mean that the war is over, as many people assume, but only that the parties are going to talk about an end to the conflict and work toward an agreement which both can live with. This MoU is the prelude, so to speak, with the intention of allowing a truce to exist for the next 60 days, while they discuss the situation. At any time and for any reason, either party can withdraw from the negotiation, completely derailing the “peace” process. It is too early to determine if an actual cessation of the war can be achieved, but, at least the principals are talking to each other, which is a good thing.

Following is the complete text of the MoU as I have seen it.

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above-mentioned and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations, in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

The most important section of this document, in my opinion, is the first one, which explicitly calls for an end to the fighting everywhere in the Middle East, including Lebanon, which is under constant attack by Israel. Notably, Israel was not privy to the terms of the MoU before it was announced and had no veto power over it, which produced intense fury within its government.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hardline-israeli-politicians-livid-over-iran-deal-want-netanyahu-out-so-they-can-do

As I understand it, the MoU is a declaration to Israel that their hostile and aggressive actions will no longer be tolerated, which, if the decree stands, will be the first time since the country was imposed on the world that they have been ordered to refrain. The main responsibility for enforcing the rule will fall on the shoulders of Donald Trump, who cannot be trusted to hold the line. I am extremely skeptical that he will do so, which opens up the possibility that Iran will attack Israel if the hostilities in Lebanon do not stop. If Iran does this, then Trump will have to make a decision as to whether to retaliate against Iran and open up the next phase of the war, or to stand down and allow Israel to take a well-deserved beating. If the kinetic war resumes, it will, more than likely, become an all-out battle with every possible weapon used, regardless of the destruction, up to and possibly including nuclear bombs. The end result may be the complete destruction of the entire region and, consequently, the loss of twenty percent of the world’s oil, which will drive the price of energy into the stratosphere and the world into an economic depression. This, of course, is a worst-case scenario, but it never hurts to have a clear understanding of the possibilities and to prepare for them, hoping that something better comes out of it.

https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/iran-defeats-the-us-reflections

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/06/no_author/trumps-art-of-the-debacle/

Out of the remainder of the sections, it seems clear that Iran will gain the most without having to give up much ground, as in:

  • The Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war, will reopen to ship traffic and Iran will retain control and negotiate terms of passage with Oman. Iran will be primarily responsible for the removal of mines. The US will remove its blockade and clear its ships out of the area completely.
  • No tolls will be charged for 60 days, which is the length of the MoU, but may be imposed after that pending the final accord.
  • Iran promises not to pursue nor develop a nuclear bomb, which was its position before the war, so it is not giving up anything on that count. The status of the enriched uranium will be negotiated and will probably come under the purview of the IAEA, but this was already in place with the JCPOA agreement which Trump tore up in 2019. No net loss for Iran, no net win for Trump.
  • Sections 2, 6, 7, 9, 10, and 11 are huge concessions by the US and can be seen as victories by Iran.

If this is maintained all the way through to a final agreement and the war ends, the conclusion must be made that Iran has emerged as the regional hegemon, Israel has been demoted to a nasty, quarreling neighbor, and the US has lost an expensive war, costing it a fortune in dollars, reputation, good will, demonstrating to the world that it can be resisted and beaten.

The world will never be the same.

  1. Versailles is the same city where Germany was forced to surrender to Great Britain and France to end WW1, the war to end all wars. The terms of the surrender were so onerous that Germany was financially destroyed, creating social conditions so severe that Adolf Hitler was able to rise from the ashes and begin the march toward WW2. ↩︎

Is The Iran War Over? What Can We Expect Now?

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

As of this writing, Monday morning, June 15, 2026, it seems that the US and Iran are about to sign off on an agreement to stop the fighting between them and come to an understanding about opening the Strait of Hormuz to traffic once again. Whether this actually happens is still up in the air, as there are too many variables in the mix which could cause one side or the other to pull back from the negotiating and approvals necessary to implement the agreement. Nevertheless, the possibility that this latest escapade on the part of Donald J. Trump on behalf of the Empire might come to an end seems plausible and optimistic.

If the situation unfolds positively, the price of oil will tumble (has already tumbled in the futures markets) and the world will catch a collective break…for the moment. However, just because the shooting and bombing MIGHT stop and the strait MIGHT be opened (with or without tolls paid to Iran and Oman) does not mean that everything will simply revert back to the “normal” state of affairs. That is not going to happen. Too much damage has been done to the world economy and, even if the oil flows start as “authorized” by Trump, it will be months before inventory levels and production stabilize, and, in the case of rebuilding infrastructure (LNG facilities in Kuwait or Bahrain, for instance), this may very well take years. In the meantime, the US energy production behemoth will benefit enormously, as will Russia’s, due to higher energy costs and the removal of competition on the world scale.

This brings me to wonder. Was all this planned out meticulously beforehand? Was the intention to destroy the Middle-East capability to produce cheap oil and concentrate control into the hands of a few mega-oligarchical structures? Was Israel used as an “attack dog” to facilitate the destruction of world-wide economies to force them into the mold envisioned by an Uber Alles trans-national elite, determined to bring everything under its control. Has Israel been allowed to run amuck for years to effect a higher-level change and, if so, will it be allowed to self-disintegrate and implode into nothingness?

Or, has everything gone badly for the Planners? After all, many US military bases in the Middle-East have been destroyed and are no longer usable. American “protection” has proven to be a farce. Israel (Zionism) is rapidly bleeding support and its most ardent believers are inexorably dying off, replaced by younger generations who do not believe the religious narrative that Jews are God’s Chosen People and that everyone else has to play second (or third) fiddle. What will be the final outcome of the time period between February 28, 2026 and today? What can we expect in the near future?

I can only speculate and, in making guesses about our future, I will bring in another voice–Karen Kwiatkotski, who writes:

“In a strange way Trump will bring the troops home, and end US wars of choice, and like the captain of the Titanic, he will ride the ship, damaged by arrogance and overreach, into the deep.” — https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/06/karen-kwiatkowski/the-us-empire-is-retrenching-bringing-imperialism-home/

In other words, the American Empire abroad is done. It has struck an iceberg and is going down, with numerous casualties, including the establishment. However, before it sinks under the waves, never to be seen again, its power, arrogance, hubris, and disdain for individual human rights and freedoms will be brought home, implemented against its own people, those unknowing and unthinking people who believed in the god-like status of the American Dream and Ideal, that is, a false god which will end up devouring, like Saturn, its own children. The average person in America today has no idea what it means to have the full force and fury of a totalitarian, despotic State unleashed against them, but I am quite certain that they will find out. Once foreign conquests abroad lose their allure (and their profitability), and empires are forced to retrench, everyone at home, both supporters and detractors alike, suffer the consequences and pay the price of manifold sins practiced…as it should be. We are part and parcel of The System and will pay the Piper for following the hypnotic tune of patriotism, nationality, and prideful arrogance.

Because America is The Exceptional Nation, of course, all of which we gladly believed. Because it made us feel good.

How times have changed. How they will change. Get ready. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

There Will be Wars…And Peace

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

End of May, 2026.

The war with Iran which erupted on February 28 in an attack by America and its “stalwart” ally, Israel, (is it the other way around?), seems to have ground down into a stagnant affair of threat and counter-threat, occasionally punctuated by a missile strike on a facility by Iran or a boat sunk by the US. Israel doesn’t appear to be an active part of the conflict at this time, but is concentrating on destroying southern Lebanon in an attempt to eradicate Hezbollah in the same way that it has with Gaza and Hamas. The Strait of Hormuz is still restricted to traffic with only a few ships squeezing through the stranglehold imposed by Iran and the blockade imposed by the US. The Trump administration produces nothing but sound and fury, headlined by his incessant Truth Social posts, while the Iranian side posts its own version of the “negotiations”, refuting and denying everything which comes from Washington.

The war, which we were told would last only a few days (or a few weeks at the most), is now three months along and there seems to be no end in sight to the hostilities. Each side appears to be hanging on with determination, expecting to outlast the other and win by default. In the meantime, the world situation concerning the supply of oil gets worse and worse, with the dread day of “tank bottoms” looming closer and closer all the time. Even if the strait were to be completely opened to shipping tomorrow morning, oil inventories would not begin to be replenished for at least a couple months due to infrastructure damage and the length of time it takes to move oil from wellhead to gas pump. The chances that the strait will be opened soon, however, are still quite slim, so the shortages caused will probably continue to worsen, along with world-wide economies which are highly dependent on the free flow of oil. Severe, even catastrophic financial collapse is well within reason, bringing with it its own troubles.

All the while, the war in Ukraine still grinds on, one day at a time, with no clear end in sight and the distinct possibility that the European nations of NATO and Russia will officially come to blows in a hot war, potentially including the use of nuclear weapons. Donald Trump continues to blow up fishing drug-running boats and make noises about invading Cuba. The Taiwan issue is simmering on the back burner, but could explode at any moment. International tensions are rising everywhere, it seems, with peaceful life on Earth becoming more and more tenuous all the time.

There will be wars and rumors of wars. It’s the end of the world, at least as we knew it. What are we to do?

Is it really the “end” of the world? Are we doomed to violent extinction? Will we be enslaved in an AI-driven system of machine control with robots doing all the work while useless mouths are eliminated in one fashion or another? Are we rushing headlong into Armageddon? Will Jesus really come back to snatch rapture us, that is, the “true believers” out of the chaotic mix just before condemning all the others to a state of eternal punishment? Who knows? ¿Quien sabes?

Life can be peaceful once certain things are understood. I am going to die. I have no control over geo-political issues. Some things are certain, anything is possible. The pension promise from the US government, a.k.a., Social Security, could be wrecked at a moment’s notice…or without any notice at all. An EMP or massive solar flare might take out the entire electrical and electronic grid, forcing me to carry water from the local river in five-gallon buckets–just to survive. Yes, anything is possible, yet, in all this turmoil and unknowing, there is peace because I am learning to simply put my faith in Almighty God, trusting that whatever happens, I will be all right and I do not have to worry about how I’m going to pay the bills.

That being said, I intend to continue on as I have been, reducing my debt load, building personal and neighborhood relations, working in my garden, developing my CAD skills, preparing my household for the future in the only way I know how, and encouraging others to act in the same manner, in their own way, with what resources they have. And, perhaps more importantly, I am going to speak the truth as I see it, even if I do run into resistance from others or encounter a bad case of writer’s block, as has happened recently.

After 67+ years of inner strife and turmoil, I am learning what peace, real peace, is all about. It is a good thing and life is beautiful.

Trump, Xi, and the Iran War: A Look Ahead

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

I woke up this morning at 3:00 a.m. with a thought firmly fixed in my mind and had to write it down before I forgot it. Comes with gray hair, you know. The forgetting, I mean, and the more I practice it, the better I get at it. Or something like that.

Anyway, right off the bat, let me stress that this is pure speculation and nothing more. I don’t have a crystal ball nor access to the halls of power. While I hesitate to openly guess at what might happen in the US/Israel/Iran war in the next few weeks, it seems better to me that a “hope for the best, consider the worst” mentality is the best way to go. Therefore…

It’s only a few days before Donald Trump lands in Beijing to meet with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, over red carpets, state dinners, and very large tables, in what could be the most important head-to-head conference of the 21st century to date. They will have a lot to discuss over the next three days and many important decisions will be made with more postponed for further discussion and review. Nothing they talk about, however, will be as prominent and important as the war which has resulted in the near-total cessation of shipping into and out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is waiting with anticipation to see what these two world-movers/shakers produce to resolve that issue and it’s a better than even bet that action toward that end will happen within a few weeks after they shake hands for the last time in the obligatory photo-op.

I am certain of a few things. Xi will bring up the dire consequences which the closure/blockade of the strait has already had on the world economy and will urge that it be brought to an end without further delay. Trump will bring up all the reasons why he has to stay the course and bring Iran to the point of total capitulation, not least of which is his overweening pride and ego which cannot tolerate loss. Benjamin Netanyahu will be there, in spirit, at least, perched on Trump’s shoulder or maybe his cell phone, whispering into his ear constantly about pressing the issue without giving up any ground. All in all, I expect that the whole discussion will be one of intense negotiation to open up the strait and exactly how that is to be done.

I am also certain, even more so, that the warring parties (US/Israel/Iran) have spent the last few weeks of relative calm stocking up quickly and feverishly on their weaponry, getting ready to go at it again as soon as the light turns green, with the likely result being that Iran will be hit harder than ever before and will strike back with even more ferocity against Israel proper, the remaining US regional bases, and oil/water infrastructure in the “cooperating” GCC statelets, most notably United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Carnage, destruction, and death on a massive scale is expected.

As to the Xi-Trump process, I can imagine both parties laying out their respective cases in detail and, in the final summation, Xi turning to Trump and telling him in diplomatic couched language to “Do what you have to do, but get it done”, with reference to the opening of the strait. Trump, of course, in his own way will, as Simon and Garfunkel sang so beautifully, “…hear what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”

And then the phone call will go out with the order to “pull the trigger”. I hope I am wrong. I hope to God that I’m wrong, but it’s hard to be optimistic about this.

What are the possible scenarios which might play out in this high-level meeting?

  1. Xi persuades Trump to cut his losses and vacate the war (and the region) for the good of the rest of the world AND Trump actually pays attention and follows the advice. This has about as much chance of happening as a snowball in hell retaining its shape and character.
  2. Far more likely, Trump ignores the advice and launches the next wave of attacks, immediately or soon thereafter. This has numerous sub-scenarios:
    • Iran suffers an Iraqi-style “shock and awe” defeat and is bombed back into the Stone Age, leaving the US totally triumphant. The strait is opened forthwith and the pent-up traffic jockeys for position.
    • Iran hits back so hard that the US/Israeli tag team sue for peace and quit, surrendering the field of battle on Iran’s terms, and leaving the entire region in a state of chaos and disarray. The strait is opened forthwith but every ship passing through pays a toll to Iran.
    • After a few days, weeks, months of intense struggle, all sides are exhausted and have to stop and begin negotiating in earnest because the damage is too great, not only in the immediate region, but economically and financially world-wide. The upside to this is that humanity might actually learn something and take steps to avoid conflicts like this in the future. The downsides to this are:
      • Israel would be put into an existentially dangerous position and could invoke the “Sampson Option”, meaning that if it goes down, so too will its adversary. Nuclear bombs. Mushroom clouds over Tehran, in other words. I have no doubt that if this were to happen, the state of Israel would disappear from the map and might even be the catalyst ushering in a nuclear war between the states who possess the bombs.
      • Both Trump and Israel have a sordid record of negotiating in “good faith” while planning and executing duplicitous attacks, therefore, Trump would probably have to be removed from office and replaced by someone whom Iran could see as “more trust-worthy”, someone who could be depended on to act as promised, at least until the ink dried on the paper the agreement was written on.
  3. Of course, in the end, we cannot discount the “conspiracy theory” that Xi and Trump are in cahoots, along with the behind-the-scenes puppet masters, to manipulate world events and that they will spend the time together hammering out the details, regardless who gets hurt in the process.

Whether I am right or not is debatable, but however it plays out will determine the course of world history. This is the last dance of the evening. No matter what happens, however, one thing is abundantly clear: Jeffrey Epstein is still smiling, like the Cheshire Cat, in the background.

End of the Ceasefire: Reality Approaches

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Today is the end of the two-week ceasefire in the war between Iran and the US conglomerate. Presumably, this was entered into to give the warring parties time to work out a satisfactory solution but because each came to the table with unconditional demands about which they would not compromise, nothing was accomplished. However, just the other day, Donald Trump unilaterally extended the “ceasefire” by an indefinite amount of time while issuing blustering threats about what would happen if Iran did not come to its senses and knuckle under, which really amounted to just another unconditional demand which was rejected immediately. No diplomacy there, no genuine desire to see the war ended, just more pompous, bully-pulpit Truth Social thundering denunciations and proclamations.

In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is still off limits to free passage by ships carrying oil, natural gas, urea, and multiple other products, all of which are essential to the continued health, wealth, and well-being of the entire world and may result in economic depression on a scale never before seen, eclipsing even that of the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but it is virtually certain that there will be very serious repercussions and consequences which may not be apparent now but will be evident in the near future.

“When disruptions strike the deepest layers of the global economy, their consequences do not arrive with spectacle but with delay. The most destabilizing feature of a systemic shock is often not its immediate violence but the deceptive calm that follows it. Cargo vessels already underway continue to reach their destinations, warehouses continue to dispatch inventory manufactured months earlier, and supermarket shelves remain stocked with goods produced in a previous season under conditions that no longer exist. This temporal inertia creates an illusion of stability at precisely the moment when the foundations of that stability are eroding. In the case of escalating conflict affecting energy infrastructure across the Gulf and maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the world is experiencing this quiet interval between cause and consequence, a period in which daily life appears normal while the logistical arteries of the global system are progressively constricted.” — https://billkloss.law.blog/2026/04/20/the-global-economy-is-closer-to-collapse-than-anyone-wants-to-admit/

It is not my intention to try to predict how the war will progress. There are more than enough experts and pundits who will do that. I can only guess (and am often wrong) as to what Trump, Netanyahu, & Co. will do next and can only speculate how the IRGC, Mullah, Inc. will respond, but I am certain of one thing. Like the Covid regime fraud and catastrophe which recently occurred (you haven’t forgotten that already, have you?), this instance of force and violence will not simply revert back to normal once the “dogs of war” are leashed and kenneled again. The consequences will be with us for a long time and it is simply foolish and naive to believe and act in a Pollyanna-like fashion. The future IS going to be different from what we are accustomed to and we should be focusing our attention, not on who wins the next election, but on getting our own personal affairs in order because we know that there’s a bad moon rising.

In the parable of the ten virgins, five wise and five foolish (Matthew 25: 1-13), Jesus gave fair warning that we should be alert, ready, and prepared for the eventual arrival of the bridegroom. This is taken by many people as a reference to His second coming and (presumed) Rapture of the Church before, during, or after all Hell breaks loose on Earth, which I will admit can be seen that way if you lean toward that theology. However, there is another interpretation which has nothing to do with that, but is extremely relevant to our situation: the “coming” mentioned in v. 13 can be seen as the natural and logical progression of events as seen from the perspective of a courtroom trial in which judgment is declared on actions already taken, guilt or innocence pronounced, and a sentence rendered on those found guilty. It is not necessary for the “bridegroom” to be physically present at all, but does promote the truth that there will be severe consequences for those who refuse to accept the truth that “…your sin will find you out…” and that we can live any way we like without dire repercussion. Put more simply, if you do this, that will happen. The Law of sowing and reaping cannot be ignored nor circumvented forever.

As individuals, cultures, societies, and nations, we have become accustomed to “falling asleep” and allowing situations to drift while we dreamed, more concerned with the promise of future benefits than with the reality of present-day living which guaranteed that devastating conditions would arise because of our preoccupation with the “good life” and worship of a System which proposed to give us anything we wanted if we would bow down and worship it. Which we did, for years, decades, and centuries. That System is now crumbling and will, in all probability, be replaced by something which may be far worse.

The upshot of this is that we cannot view this parable exclusively from a pie-in-the-sky sense of spirituality, but must consider what it means in the here-and-now. As a world, we have spent our time, treasure, and wealth, trying to gain power and control over others, regardless what it cost, and are now finding out that the verdict is not going to be issued in our favor. Everything we have done to build a McMansion for ourselves, a Tower of Babel from which we can never be dislodged, a prosperous future based on a sea of lies, is now collapsing into a quagmire of quicksand which is threatening to suck us under and there is nothing we can do about it, except to be personally prepared for it, filling our reservoir of “oil” so that we will not be caught flat-footed nor absent when the full effect of the sentence imposed falls on us.

Jesus is not coming back to snatch us out of the sinful mess which we have created for ourselves. There is not going to be any supernatural “rescue” of those who hold to a particular religious ideology and viewpoint. We are going to experience the full weight and consequences of our own rebellious actions against the Word of God which compels us to love our neighbors and our enemies as much as we love ourselves. Because we have refused this order, Judgement Day is upon us and what is coming is going to hurt. It is going to be painful It is going to cause enormous difficulty to our preconceived notions of what it means to be Christian and we can either submit to it in faith and trust, believing that our Father, Who administers the “spanking” has our best interests at heart OR we can continue to believe that a rich “daddy” will bail us out of any conceivable disaster which we have brought upon ourselves.

We can bear the suffering and change our ways OR we can fight back and resist which will only result in a more severe beating. This is the choice before us and we will make a decision–one way or the other. Choose wisely.

Destroying the Village to Save It: Modern Version

Roger Mitchell1 Comment

In just a few days, the two week cease-fire in the Iran war will come to an end. What happens then is anybody’s guess, that is, if you’re not politically or militarily connected to the power-brokers who call the shots. What is certain, however, is that all the warring parties have been feverishly restocking their depleted stores of bombs, missiles, drones, planes, and other assorted war-waging materiel just in case the shooting starts all over again. I am quite sure it will. This time around, if it does, I would expect an all-out, no holds barred, assault on Iran and a reciprocal fire aimed at Israel, the GCC, and any US assets in the region.

Whatever happens, shoot or go home, there is one serious side-effect to this war which is not going to go away anytime soon, i.e., the shortage of oil around the world which has been caused by the Hormuz Strait closure and which will not be restored to any former sense of normalcy for months, at the very least. Larry Johnson sums it up quite well in this interview with Danny Davis. Donald Trump might put it like this, if he was to think about it.

“Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war cannot be tolerated. It was closed by Iran because we attacked them and now we’re going to attack them again to force it open. This war has already caused immense financial and social damage world-wide, but we have to continue it because Iran is at war with us.”

In other words, we have to wreck the world economy to save the world. Shades of Viet Nam.

The Strait was closed to traffic at the start of the war and, except for a few isolated instances, no oil tankers have transited it since then. Now, assume that a fully loaded tanker leaves the Strait headed for China or Japan, a voyage of 6500 +/- miles and travels at an average speed of 15 miles per hour, 24 hours per day. The voyage would take 433.33 hours or about 3 weeks to complete the trip. This means that all the tankers which left the Strait at the start of the war have already reached their port destination and unloaded the cargo. Plan a week to offload and another three weeks to make the return voyage means that a round trip could be made in seven weeks, or just about the length of time of the war so far.

The problem, under this scenario, is that there are no more tankers en route with cargo since none are allowed through the Strait and, even if these tankers could reload and ship out immediately, say another week to turn around, it would mean four more weeks before they arrive again in China or Japan. This means at least two months with no oil shipping from the Persian Gulf which will be absolutely disastrous to these countries (and all others dependent) and the effects will be felt around the world, including the US which (supposedly) is self-sufficient in oil. Not exactly true, but that’s another story. For a good description of how this affects the societies on the ground around the world, see here. Even if the Strait was fully opened immediately, there would still be that time lapse when no oil moved and the consequences of that will linger for a long time. If the active shooting restarts, the problem will only get worse.

Net result: cost of oil going through the roof and everything else which is derived from it rising in lockstep. We may very well see gasoline at $10 or $12 per gallon before this is done, which will basically cut the foundation from under the world economy and it will fall like a stone. A very large stone. Recall the lyrics which John Fogerty of CCR sang in the classic, “I see a bad moon rising. I see trouble on the way.”

Well done, Mr. Trump.

Massive dislocations in society, both public and private, are coming, like the predicted return of Jesus by so many people, soon, real soon. Those changes will probably get here first and will result in major alterations in the way the average person lives. They will drive the switch in thinking from “What can I buy which will make me feel better about myself?” to “How can I stay alive and feed my family today?”. In short, a paradigm change in the consideration of what is truly important. We need to be ready for that, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually, and the best place to start our preparations is found in this. 

"Trust in the LORD with all your heart 
And do not lean on your own understanding;
In all your ways acknowledge Him,
And He shall direct your paths."
-- Proverbs 3:5-6

Don’t Cross These Red Lines

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

From an article on Zero Hedge:

Trump’s 6 Red Lines

Fox News reports that Vice President Vance’s final offer delivered to the Iranian delegation in Islamabad includes the following “red lines.”

  1. End all uranium enrichment
  2. Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities 
  3. Retrieve highly enriched uranium 
  4. Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies
  5. End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
  6. Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage

Needless to say, Iran refused to agree. 

Oh-kay! Translation below.

Trump: “End all uranium enrichment.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable. Besides, we don’t have any nuclear enrichment facilities anymore since you “obliterated” them last year in the 12-day war. Remember? Do we need to play the clips?”

Trump: “Retrieve Surrender highly enriched uranium.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies.” Iran: “We have already proposed this as a condition, but that will have to include Israel as well. Without Israel, this is not acceptable, not negotiable.”

Trump: “End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.” Iran: “What funding is this? We can’t even afford to pay our own people since our currency is worthless. We know this because you are always bragging about destroying it.”

Trump: “Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage.” Iran: “Not acceptable, not negotiable. That is our trump card (pardon the pun) and we intend to play it to the max. Someone is going to pay for this war and if you refuse to pony up for the damages caused, then the rest of the world will. Besides, and we hate to belabor the point, but before we were attacked, the Strait was fully and freely open to anyone who wanted to transit it. We did not start this trouble, but we are going to finish it.”

Needless to say, Team Trump got up and walked out.

Next move: Donald Trump. “Blockade the blockade.”

Wars begin. And they end.

Roger Mitchell1 Comment

Ho hum! Yawn! Another week of killing them over there so we don’t have to kill them over here.

It’s beginning to look like The Man, Mr. Donald J. Trump himself, is desperate and flailing about for any means of extricating the US from this ill-conceived and extremely stupid conflict he got himself into. Reading alternative news sources (not the Major Media Machine) gives me the understanding that the war is not going at all the way it was intended to when Trump and Older Brother Benjamin started it. A quick in-and-done result is long gone and Iran sounds resolute about not stopping until the menace of future attacks is completely obliterated and never to be attempted again.

Never is a very long time.

  • Strait of Hormuz passage subject to Iranian consent, none given to ships with US and/or Israeli ties.
  • Despite very public “begging”, many EU members have refused to join Trump’s “coalition of the willing” to reopen the Strait. Coalition of the Willing, of course, is a throwback to George H.W. Bush’s drive to wreak havoc on Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.
  • Why have 5000 Marines been ordered into the region? Boots on the ground? But, to effect a successful ground invasion would require multiple times that pitifully small number, perhaps on the order of 500, 000, which the American public will not tolerate without just cause, such as, a mushroom cloud rising over an American city. Shades of the Iraq war in 2003 under Bush’s son, Dubya.
  • US Navy ships pulling back beyond the range of Iran’s missiles for no apparent reason, although rumor has it that one aircraft carrier has been struck.
  • Oil refineries throughout the region burning. Oil prices spiking daily. The world is beginning to feel the effects as evidenced by Denmark’s driving population encouraged to stop driving. Just stop, will you?
  • Trump sounding more and more erratic, not only in speech, but also on his own Truth Social.
  • Scott Bessent summoned abruptly to the Oval Office while in the middle of an interview, returning two hours later appearing very shaken and incoherent. One possible reason why:
  • Rumors flying around that Netanyahu has been killed in the heat of battle. Brought down by a random shot. No official confirmation at this time, but speculation is growing. If this proves to be true, that would be reminiscent of another of Israel’s leaders being taken out in the same manner, but 3500 years or so earlier: Ahab.

Now a certain man drew a bow at random, and struck the king of Israel between the joints of his armor. So he said to the driver of his chariot, “Turn around and take me out of the battle, for I am wounded.” The battle increased that day; and the king was propped up in his chariot, facing the Syrians, and died at evening. The blood ran out from the wound onto the floor of the chariot. Then, as the sun was going down, a shout went throughout the army, saying, “Every man to his city, and every man to his own country!” So the king died… (1 Kings 22:34-37a)

History, it is said, does not repeat but rhymes, and it would be ironic (and rhythmic) if the war was ended because Dear Leader Bibi was indeed killed. Which brings us to the quote by Machiavelli seen at the top. Wars start whenever at the discretion of the leaders. They end when they end and usually for reasons unknown, unforeseen, and unanticipated at the initiation of the action.

When the first shot of battle is fired, the plan goes out the window.

When Johnny Goes Marching Off to War, Hurrah! Hurrah!

Roger Mitchell7 Comments

The title for this article is derived from the old song longing hopefully for the safe return of soldiers from the carnage of the American War between the States1 (1861-1865). What is usually not mentioned nor remembered is the fervor and celebration of just a few years earlier with which Johnny marched off to war and his family and friends, both North and South, cheered him on, gave parades in his honor, showered him with adulation, flowers, and kisses. “Hurrah! Hurrah! We’ll teach those scoundrels (Yankees, Rebs) something they won’t ever forget! Go get’m, Johnny! We’re behind you all the way.”

This, as I recall, was the atmosphere in America immediately after 9/11. It seemed that everyone couldn’t wait to go out and kick some a$$ for the destruction of the World Trade Center in 2001, and, to be perfectly honest, it didn’t really matter whether the actual perpetrators were brought to “justice” or not, as long as someone paid. The administration, George W. Bush presiding, took full advantage of the situation and launched two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, which were only ended years later, without ever resolving the question of “whodunit?”. Not that it mattered too much, anyway. The American public is driven by emotion rather than common sense and Congress is repeatedly admonished to “Don’t just sit there, do something.”, with the unspoken implication that it is better to do anything, even if it is wrong, than to contemplate their actions, consider the consequences, and make good choices.

Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941, the “day which will last in infamy”, was no different, except that there was no question about who had initiated the attack: Japan, the Rising Sun empire, and America lost no time in ramping up to a wartime footing in a massive spirit of revenge and retaliation, intent only on the destruction of those who dared to slap the face of Uncle Sam. Nothing was held back by the public, no sacrifice was too great, no cost was too much to bear for The Cause of total victory.

That was then, this is now.

Today, even as I write this, the tension in the Middle East is at a fever-pitch and rapidly escalating. The US may have already attacked Iran by the time you read this. Donald Trump is ramping up his threats and bullying tactics against Iran, demanding that the government undergo a regime change, that it Cease and Desist from any nuclear program, and that it immediately disarm by getting rid of its long range missiles. Basically, complete and abject surrender on Trump’s terms which, of course, the mullahs who lead Iran have rejected without any equivocation. What is Trump going to do if Iran doesn’t bow and scrape? Sign the order to attack? Or, TACO? We’ll know soon.

It seems to me (and polls regularly bear this out) that the mood of the country is against starting another war, especially one in the Middle East. People are genuinely tired of the “forever wars” and Trump capitalized on that sentiment when he was on the campaign trail, promising to end them. Political reality reigns supreme, however, as he conveniently forgot what he had promised to the voters only a short time earlier and started aggressively going after other countries, all smaller and weaker than the US. To date, in the first year of his second term, he has literally bombed ten countries, more than any of his predecessors. One of those was Iran at the end of the 12-day war with Israel last summer when he supposedly destroyed (obliterated was the word he used) Iran’s nuclear capabilities completely. I say supposedly, because, if that was the case, then why is there so much concern about Iran’s current nuclear program? Something doesn’t add up here and can be seen for what it is–a bald-faced lie.

Events like this which have occurred over the years wherein The Powers That Be have run roughshod over the interests of the common people do not build trust within society. Without that trust, institutions fail and when a society’s institutions fail, the society collapses. The ongoing Epstein scandal and the recent Covid scam have created an enormous (and growing) distrust among the populace which will not be reversed if Trump goes to war against Iran and gets the pants beaten off him. The only reason that trust and faith might be restored would be if he achieves complete and total victory immediately, without question, for the whole world to see and understand. Of course, once the victory laps, backslapping, and grandstanding were done, we’d be off to the next conquest, the next enemy which needed to be taken out as a matter of “national security”. Any guesses as to which one that would be? You get three and the first two don’t count, but I’ll give you a hint. It starts with an R, ends in A, and has six letters.

God help us!

If he is not immediately successful and Iran closes the strait of Hormuz to shipping, the price of oil will go through the roof, the financial Jenga tower known as derivatives will collapse, the Federal Reserve printing presses will be pushed to the limit resulting in hyper-inflation, and the world-wide system of fiat money will be scrapped in favor of a different one–the Great Reset, which we’ve all heard about. Probably something along this line of thinking will happen, that is, if Trump does not achieve complete and total victory with the first strike. Probably. It might happen if he does succeed. I’m only speculating.

Or, perhaps that has been the plan all along. Who knows?

In an article posted on Forum Geopolitica, Scott Ritter had this to say about the situation.

“A war on Iran will result in a disaster for all parties involved. There is no guarantee of success on the part of the United States and Israel, or failure on the part of Iran. There is a huge risk that this war will result in massive disruption of critical energy production capability in one of the most critical energy production regions in the world, triggering a massive energy security crisis that could collapse regional and global economies.

So, the key question is why Donald Trump, a man who ran on a platform of peace, willing to risk losing his political base on the eve of critical mid-term elections by betting on the successful execution of a short war with Iran that achieves the regime change outcome desired?

The simple answer is because he simply has no choice.”

Ritter goes on to explain why he thinks Trump has no choice and I can’t say that he’s wrong. The extremely high sunk costs of the military buildup almost guarantee that an action of some type will be taken, if for no other reason than to recoup some of the expense incurred. The greater reason, though, is that Trump’s ego, prestige, and reputation will take an enormous hit if he “chickens out” this time. Given the polling numbers on his sinking approval rating, it would likely lead to a loss by the Republican Party to the Democrats in November, virtually ensuring that impeachment hearings would be resurrected, this time with a fairly good chance of “throwing the rascal out”. Of course, if he does initiate the war and loses, the same scenario presents itself. In short, Trump is caught in a lose/lose situation. Heads I lose, tails you win, and there’s not much that he can do about it.

If Trump wins, he will be insufferable. If he loses, watch out. Either way, the American public will pay the price and my guess is that cheering Johnny as he marches off to war will become a highly unpopular act. As it should. Wars have a nasty habit of biting the hands which feed them.

  1. Technically speaking, not a civil war as the Confederate States were not trying to take over the existing government, but wanted to split from it and set up a separate one. It should more properly be called a secessionist movement which was put down by force. ↩︎