Tag: Viet Nam

Destroying the Village to Save It: Modern Version

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

In just a few days, the two week cease-fire in the Iran war will come to an end. What happens then is anybody’s guess, that is, if you’re not politically or militarily connected to the power-brokers who call the shots. What is certain, however, is that all the warring parties have been feverishly restocking their depleted stores of bombs, missiles, drones, planes, and other assorted war-waging materiel just in case the shooting starts all over again. I am quite sure it will. This time around, if it does, I would expect an all-out, no holds barred, assault on Iran and a reciprocal fire aimed at Israel, the GCC, and any US assets in the region.

Whatever happens, shoot or go home, there is one serious side-effect to this war which is not going to go away anytime soon, i.e., the shortage of oil around the world which has been caused by the Hormuz Strait closure and which will not be restored to any former sense of normalcy for months, at the very least. Larry Johnson sums it up quite well in this interview with Danny Davis. Donald Trump might put it like this, if he was to think about it.

“Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war cannot be tolerated. It was closed by Iran because we attacked them and now we’re going to attack them again to force it open. This war has already caused immense financial and social damage world-wide, but we have to continue it because Iran is at war with us.”

In other words, we have to wreck the world economy to save the world. Shades of Viet Nam.

The Strait was closed to traffic at the start of the war and, except for a few isolated instances, no oil tankers have transited it since then. Now, assume that a fully loaded tanker leaves the Strait headed for China or Japan, a voyage of 6500 +/- miles and travels at an average speed of 15 miles per hour, 24 hours per day. The voyage would take 433.33 hours or about 3 weeks to complete the trip. This means that all the tankers which left the Strait at the start of the war have already reached their port destination and unloaded the cargo. Plan a week to offload and another three weeks to make the return voyage means that a round trip could be made in seven weeks, or just about the length of time of the war so far.

The problem, under this scenario, is that there are no more tankers en route with cargo since none are allowed through the Strait and, even if these tankers could reload and ship out immediately, say another week to turn around, it would mean four more weeks before they arrive again in China or Japan. This means at least two months with no oil shipping from the Persian Gulf which will be absolutely disastrous to these countries (and all others dependent) and the effects will be felt around the world, including the US which (supposedly) is self-sufficient in oil. Not exactly true, but that’s another story. For a good description of how this affects the societies on the ground around the world, see here. Even if the Strait was fully opened immediately, there would still be that time lapse when no oil moved and the consequences of that will linger for a long time. If the active shooting restarts, the problem will only get worse.

Net result: cost of oil going through the roof and everything else which is derived from it rising in lockstep. We may very well see gasoline at $10 or $12 per gallon before this is done, which will basically cut the foundation from under the world economy and it will fall like a stone. A very large stone. Recall the lyrics which John Fogerty of CCR sang in the classic, “I see a bad moon rising. I see trouble on the way.”

Well done, Mr. Trump.

Massive dislocations in society, both public and private, are coming, like the predicted return of Jesus by so many people, soon, real soon. Those changes will probably get here first and will result in major alterations in the way the average person lives. They will drive the switch in thinking from “What can I buy which will make me feel better about myself?” to “How can I stay alive and feed my family today?”. In short, a paradigm change in the consideration of what is truly important. We need to be ready for that, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually, and the best place to start our preparations is found in this. 

"Trust in the LORD with all your heart 
And do not lean on your own understanding;
In all your ways acknowledge Him,
And He shall direct your paths."
-- Proverbs 3:5-6

Broken, but Still Defiant

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

By this time, you have probably seen Donald Trump’s recent address to the American public and the world on the situation in the Middle East. If you haven’t, watch it here.

I only watched the first half of this, about nine minutes, then I turned it off. I couldn’t take any more. I actually felt compassion for the man, which is something different for me, because I have never had anything but contempt for him before this.

Trump is broken. He’s done. He walked in as if he was about ready to collapse, head down, without any life in his step. During the time I watched, he never let go of the lectern and never took his eyes off the auto-prompt, reading everything on it in a mechanical manner quite unlike his usual self. Eyes straight ahead, monotone voice. Body language defying everything he said. None of the usual bombastic, flamboyant behavior. Even when he took credit for all the “good” things which have happened, it was as if coming from a robot.

I’m not surprised. After all, the Word promises that those who exalt themselves shall be humbled, and there is no question about Trump exalting himself. “I’m the president. I can do anything I want. The only limit I recognize is my own mind, my own will, my own morality. Look at me. Look at me. Look. Look. Look.”

Trump is broken. He’s run up against something which he can’t control and it has done him in. This is probably the first time in his life where he experienced something like this, with negative repercussions directly and visibly in front of him and no way to avoid the accounting, which is disastrous. No matter which way he turns, no matter what he does, he loses. Loses, loses bigly. He is in uncharted territory.

I could easily expound on the Iran war, but that is not necessary. There are more than enough pundits eager and willing to analyze and write about that. Instead, I’m going to psychoanalyze Mr. Trump’s position and his mentality, from a distance, of course, as I have never met the man and I have never had any training in the profession, but I have had a lot of experience from life.

Trump is in a very bad position, between Iran and a hard place.1 If he withdraws from the battle because it is beginning to cost too much, then he will be seen as a loser, a quitter, someone who can’t stand being punched in the nose. If he stays in the fight, he has to escalate in order to “win”, a subjective perception which might or might not play well at home with his fan base. If he escalates, he runs the risk of generating even greater losses than already incurred, i.e., the lives of hundreds or thousands of American servicemen/women which will not play well at home. If this war drags on very much longer, it runs the risk of becoming a Viet Nam type engagement, which will not play well at home. If he resorts to the use of nuclear weapons (or consents to the use of Israeli nuclear weapons), he runs the risk of world-wide condemnation, including from his home base. He can’t quit and he can’t continue. Is it any wonder that he appeared as he did last night in the speech he presented? Old, broken, and unwilling to admit failure and defeat.

God, please, please have mercy on that man. He needs it.

  1. Pardon the pun. George W. Bush was in the same predicament more than 20 years ago. Caught between Iraq and a hard place. The saying goes, “caught between a rock and a hard place”, in other words, in a position where everything you do turns out badly because you made a stupid, a really stupid mistake to start with. ↩︎

America’s Moral Obligation to Defend the World and Attack Iran

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

I can remember discussions with my father when I was young and learning to form and assert my own opinions. In one of those, he brought out the argument that America had a responsibility to police the world because the US was the premier power of righteous morality (or something to that effect) and if we didn’t keep things in order, the world would soon end up in a chaotic maelstrom of Communist rule, headquartered in Moscow, Russia. At the time, as I recall, the Viet Nam war (Domino Theory) was still in full swing and, due to his experiences during WW21, it is understandable why he might be of that opinion.

Just the other day, a local chat group I participate in blew up into an intense, mildly rancorous debate because one of the members said that Donald Trump had to attack Iran and the main reason given for the “required” action was that 40, 000 Iranian citizens had been killed in the recent street protests. Needless to say, his viewpoint was severely questioned and the argument raged for some time with no clear resolution of the issue. Given that “Jeff” is a conservative Christian Zionist, it is understandable why he might think that way.

The US had a responsibility to make the world safe. The US had to attack Iran to stop the government there from killing its own citizens. These are nearly identical positions which bespeak that America has some (nebulous, unproven) God-given duty to ensure that the rest of the world behaves itself and to “straighten it out” if necessary, like a young boy facing a whipping for some misbehavior. Fifty years apart, they only prove that deeply held beliefs across a wide spectrum of society take a long time to change.

That line of thinking is dying out in America and it is fairly evident that most of the rest of the world has kicked it to the curb. Today, the US is widely seen, not as a shining knight on a white steed administering justice, liberty, and the American way, but as an overbearing, monstrous, murderous bully, intent only on getting its way, pushing its way into arguments which do not concern it, and beating the living daylights out of small, weak countries. Because, we can. Because, as Donald Trump famously said when asked if there were any limits on his actions as President, “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me. I don’t need international law.” Because, his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth openly states about the war, “Death and destruction from the sky all day long…This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.” Because, as Michael Ledeen put it twenty some years ago, “Every now and again the United States has to pick up a crappy little country and throw it against a wall just to prove we are serious.”

“I define my own limits.” “Kick them while they’re down.” “Beat up somebody smaller and weaker than you are so others will notice.” These are the attitudes which rule American foreign policy today. Morally righteous behavior has nothing to do with it. God-given authority has nothing to do with it. In fact, the current administration has made it quite clear that it will no longer be held accountable by the standards and norms (internationally accepted) which ruled the interactions between countries. Supposedly ruled, I should say, since strong countries like the US have always forced the issues and never hesitated to use violent force whenever it was deemed “necessary”. From here on out, it’s the Law of the Jungle, and woe betide anyone who gets in the way of the rampaging 800 pound gorilla. Power exercised for the sake of power, and the collateral benefit is that great wealth is gained thereby.

As professing Christians, believers in the gospel of Jesus the Christ, disciples of His teachings, obligated to follow and obey His commands, it should be apparent that waging war by an ungodly State (US) goes against everything we are expected to adhere to, especially when said war is in the “service” of an anti-Christian, atheistic, murderous regime (Israel) which is absolutely opposed to Christian belief and actively persecutes those Christians (along with believers in other religious orders) who live within its jurisdiction. There is nothing Christian at all with the popular policy that “We have to kill them over there, so that we don’t have to kill them over here.”

For those who would disagree with this (and they are legion), I ask this. Where is it written that we MUST employ violent force to destroy anyone who gets in the way of “national interests”? Where is it written that “service” to our country overrides our obligation to the Prince of Peace? Where is it written that we are given the option between the way of the world and the narrow way to life? Where is it written that the US is an exceptional nation simply because we have been blessed materially with a scope of riches and power which history has never seen before? Where is it written that we can, like Donald Trump said, do whatever we want. Where is it written that we will never be called out for our behavior and reap the consequences of our actions?

In the current situation, there is a blatant hypocrisy which causes extreme discomfort and cognitive dissonance in those who refuse to face the truth. Enormous outrage is vented against Iran for killing 40, 0002 people, its own citizens, and action is demanded to impose “justice”. Yet, nary a peep is heard from these same people about the ongoing genocide in Gaza which has demonstrably and visibly slaughtered at least 75, 000 persons, most of them women and children. In addition, nothing is ever mentioned about the “sanctions” imposed on the Palestinians (Iraqis, Cubans, etc.) which have (and will) result in the deaths of many, many more due to lack of food, good water, and adequate health care. In fact, many of those who express anger at the Iranians for their “crimes against humanity” often, at the same time, profess to believe that the State of Israel, as the chosen people of God must be supported, idolized, and excused without restriction or accountability.

The teaching of Jesus simply does not matter in our world and can be relegated and confined to the weekly show known as “church” which passes for holiness today. “Thou shalt not kill” is relative. “Love your enemies” is conditional on how we feel about them. “Do good to those who hate you” means that we do “good” to them, but do it first. Kick them while they’re down.

Where is the concept of sacrifice for others out of a spirit of love, as exemplified by Christ and taught in the New Testament? How can we square the order of the true Commander-in-Chief3 with the way we live according to our own word? When will this change to better conform with what we profess to believe? Why do we continue to hold onto this contradiction and refuse to acknowledge it, except that we, again like Donald Trump, cannot bring ourselves to admit we are wrong and to repent of our sins?

Think about it.

  1. He was stationed on a light cruiser, USS Helena, which was sunk somewhere in the South Pacific. Incidentally, he and all four of his brothers were in active combat operations and all of them came home without serious injury. I take that as a REAL blessing of God. ↩︎
  2. This is an unproven claim which has been broadcast widely by the mainstream news, but is almost certainly inflated from the real number. It has been reported that many of the deaths which occurred, both civilian and law enforcement, were due to random sniper fire at riots which may have been orchestrated by Israeli (Mossad) and US (CIA) intelligence. ↩︎
  3. Not Donald Trump, BTW, who only holds that title as relates to the military. It does not transfer over to civilians. ↩︎

Ok, Mr. Trump. What’s Next? Who’s Next?

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

It’s been a few days since the United States attacked Venezuela in the middle of the night and captured kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, packing them out, and sending them in handcuffs to New York City where they will be charged with, well, something which has a high probability of winning in a court packed with team players. You know, narco-terrorism, gang activity, gun-running, theft of American property, and perhaps even unauthorized intent to interfere in the 2028 presidential election, among others yet to be thought of. But, you know, “justice” has to be and will be served. Criminals simply cannot be allowed to run around loose like that, you know.

“The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” — Melian Dialogue

I’ve read a lot of widely varying viewpoints on this affair and I still don’t know what is the truth. Probably never will for sure, but that isn’t going to stop me from forming my own opinion. Neither should it prevent you because we can only take what we know, including the obviously blatant lies and propaganda, and make the best decision we can with that information. Since we never have the complete truth, we have to make do with what we have. So, here’s mine.

I’m increasingly convinced that the whole affair was a staged act of theater, designed to make it appear that America was back, riding high in the saddle after getting bucked off in Iraq and Afghanistan.1 Yeah, we can do whatever we want because we are the only country in the world who could do such a thing! Braggadocio! Bravado! Pump that fist to pump up the standing of those who are calling the shots and not doing really well at solving anything. Not to mention that this episode is a great distraction from the ongoing fracas known as Total Release of the Complete and Minimally Redacted Set of the Epstein Files. Yeah, how much have you heard about that in the last few days and when will it reassert itself as front-page news? If America gets bogged down in a Viet Nam-style war in Venezuela, will we ever hear anything more about it?

Popular blogger, Simplicius, has fronted the possibility that Trump and Putin actually worked out a deal between them in which the US would agree to withdraw from Ukraine and Putin would look the other way on Venezuela. Whether this is accurate doesn’t matter as much as it adds to the suspicions that the whole thing is about large, muscular states overriding and destroying the sovereignty of smaller weaker ones without any qualms, without any concern as to who gets hurt in the process.

“As the US was so concerned about the Monroe Doctrine and its own backyard, perhaps the US might also be concerned about developments in Russia’s backyard, as in Ukraine, making it very obvious that they were trying to set ip [sic] some kind of let’s just say: You stay out of Ukraine or you move out of Ukraine, and, you know, we’ll rethink where we are with Venezuela.” – Fiona Hill to Congress, October 14, 2019

This seems to me to be a good case of strong arm bullying on the cheap without having to sink huge amounts of men, material, and money into the operation. If that is the case AND if it pans out well for Trump, then he has succeeded spectacularly. However, we cannot discount the idea that it will not play the way it was designed and that the aftermath might just be too much to bear. It is almost certain that the real reason for this was to regain control of the massive amounts of crude oil buried there, not to punish small time drug dealers or gang leaders. The question remains as to how the “campesinos” in Venezuela react to the taking of Maduro and the subsequent seizure of property which they might consider their own. If Trump attempts to impose a puppet government for the purpose of streamlining the transfer of that oil to large multinational companies against the popular will of the people, he may find that he has jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

There are, of course, those niggling, nagging, little things called consequences, many of them as yet unseen.

  • 1. The “international rules-based order” so loudly trumpeted by the West as a defense of its policies and actions, and a denunciation of other nations which refused to “follow the rules”, is dead. Kaput. Rigor mortis setting in. There is no more system, only raw, naked power which is used by those who have the means to exercise it against those who cannot defend themselves.2 This applies as well to the much-vaunted “rule of law” proclaimed proudly as the basis of the supposed republic which Ben Franklin warned would have to be kept or it would disappear. Gone. Gone forever. It will never return in its previous form. From here on out, it is the law of the jungle–“Kill or be killed.”
  • The capture kidnapping and arrest of Nicolas Maduro on specious charges follows the same pattern as set by that in the case of Manuel Noriega in 1989, and will be argued according to the legal doctrine developed at that time. Since the US government never admits wrong-doing and will continue the practice whenever it wants, a precedent has been set which will probably be followed by other nations whenever they can, up to and including the assassination of high government officials, possibly likely even presidents.
  • The US and China have only recently “resolved” their differences over the production and distribution of rare earth elements (REE) which are required in the manufacture of many modern items which we can’t live without–smart phones, hi-tech missiles, data centers, satellites, etc. Will China respond to the loss of oil purchased from Venezuela by clamping down even harder on the REE issue?
  • Will China issue its own National Security Strategy declaring that the entire east coast of Asia is now to be considered as their sphere of influence and woe to the foreign power which might dare to meddle in the sovereign affairs of the nations within it? What if Xi Jin Ping decided one day to change the name of the Taiwan Strait to the China Strait and forbade adversarial powers to enter therein, all while making threatening noises about what would happen if they did?
  • Will foreign backed “terrorist”3 cells be activated within the US? Is that tactic to be reserved until Iran is attacked again? What is to be the defense against those?
  • And, of course, the rock-hard reality that we simply cannot afford another long, drawn-out war even if it is in our own backyard.

And on, and on, and on…

This whole thing may blow over with very little damage to show for it, but I have to admit the forebodings I experienced during the Noriega crisis are amplified today. For one thing, at that time, the USSR was on the cusp of collapsing, the vision of America as the only superpower was becoming reality, and the Panama Canal was still widely considered American property. Today? Well, the US is broke, deeply indebted, universally hated, arrogant beyond belief, and led by people who are trying to reclaim her former “glory”4 by repeating the mistakes of the past. There is also the fact that in 1989, the US still had some semblance of respectability around the world, while today it is in ragged tatters.

At any rate, regardless what happens in the next few months or years, the probability that life, liberty, and happiness will be jeopardized for the average person in America and around the world has just been increased. Our situation is not getting better and this sort of Rambo-type machismo will not make it any better.

Success breeds confidence which generates hubris which causes overreach which creates mistakes which have consequences which result in disaster which end in downfall.

  1. This brings back memory of the comment George H.W. Bush made after the First Iraq War which he engineered–“It’s a proud day for America. And, by God, we’ve kicked the Vietnam syndrome once and for all.” ↩︎
  2. Boiled down to its most basic meaning, this is no different than the argument used by those who champion and practice abortion on demand. It is an aggression committed against the least powerful, most defenseless persons among us by those who refuse to act responsibly. ↩︎
  3. One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. It all depends on your perspective. However, all terrorists operate according to one principle: the use of violence and force to attain a political end, which means every single government is a terrorist group. ↩︎
  4. I have encapsulated “glory” in quotation marks as a matter of ridicule and contempt. Glory belongs to God alone and He shares with no one. (Isaiah 42:8) Remember this the next time you hear the American flag referred to as “Old Glory”. ↩︎

Those Who Refuse to Learn…

Roger MitchellLeave a comment

It has been two years since the US pulled its troops out of Afghanistan in one of the most humiliating withdrawals the country has ever experienced. An event of this nature has not happened since the days of the Viet Nam war, when hordes of panic-stricken people crowded onto the roof of the American embassy in Saigon, all of them hoping to catch a ride out on a helicopter to escape the wrath of the approaching Viet Cong army. See here for a comparison between then and now.

The retreat from Kabul, Afghanistan, was a disastrous, uncoordinated, debacle which saw thirteen young American servicemen and women killed during the last days. Not only that, but the US military left behind billions of dollars worth of intact war machinery–weapons, vehicles, airplanes, etc., which the Taliban promptly seized. This catastrophe showed the world in vivid detail that the US military had cut and run like a scared rabbit with no regard for anyone left behind–including thirteen young American servicemen and women.

We have not learned. America (the West, NATO) is now bogged down in Ukraine, throwing money at the conflict like it was a bottomless pit, constantly ratcheting up the rhetoric, always edging closer and closer to actual conflict with Russia, never pausing to think about the consequences. Or, as Admiral David Farragut exclaimed, “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!”

Sometimes extreme risk-taking can pay off, as Farragut’s gamble proved, but the consequences, if he had failed, would have been a few ships and men lost, whereas, if active, hot war with Russia erupts as a result of America’s provocative foolishness, it (theoretically, at least) could mean the literal end of the world via unlimited nuclear “bombs bursting in air”. Is it worth the risk just to show how tough we are or to maintain the status quo? I think not. Prudence and common sense would dictate a pullback to a more secure position.

If it should happen that the West is able to disentangle itself from Ukraine (with “honor”, no less), there is always the Taiwan issue, the next hurdle to be overcome in the quest to achieve world dominance through overwhelming force. Anyone who is awake and aware can see that the pivot to this new theater of war is already well underway. The propaganda machine is already cranking up the rhetoric, conditioning the masses for a new engagement on a different front. China, it is said, is the main adversary of the American way of life and the implacable foe of “freedom”, therefore, she must be taken down a peg or two.

And the move to total global war ratchets forward another notch. Eventually, unless we experience a genuine sea-change in public opinion, it will hit home, close to home, perhaps even personally. America is not immune to destruction and, in what will be surprising to many, that destruction can happen virtually, even literally, overnight–with little to no warning.

Except for one small thing. We have been warned and we have not learned. It appears that we will not learn until we have to–the hard way.