It’s been a few days since the United States attacked Venezuela in the middle of the night and captured kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, packing them out, and sending them in handcuffs to New York City where they will be charged with, well, something which has a high probability of winning in a court packed with team players. You know, narco-terrorism, gang activity, gun-running, theft of American property, and perhaps even unauthorized intent to interfere in the 2028 presidential election, among others yet to be thought of. But, you know, “justice” has to be and will be served. Criminals simply cannot be allowed to run around loose like that, you know.

“The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” — Melian Dialogue

I’ve read a lot of widely varying viewpoints on this affair and I still don’t know what is the truth. Probably never will for sure, but that isn’t going to stop me from forming my own opinion. Neither should it prevent you because we can only take what we know, including the obviously blatant lies and propaganda, and make the best decision we can with that information. Since we never have the complete truth, we have to make do with what we have. So, here’s mine.

I’m increasingly convinced that the whole affair was a staged act of theater, designed to make it appear that America was back, riding high in the saddle after getting bucked off in Iraq and Afghanistan.¹ Yeah, we can do whatever we want because we are the only country in the world who could do such a thing! Braggadocio! Bravado! Pump that fist to pump up the standing of those who are calling the shots and not doing really well at solving anything. Not to mention that this episode is a great distraction from the ongoing fracas known as Total Release of the Complete and Minimally Redacted Set of the Epstein Files. Yeah, how much have you heard about that in the last few days and when will it reassert itself as front-page news? If America gets bogged down in a Viet Nam-style war in Venezuela, will we ever hear anything more about it?

Popular blogger, Simplicius, has fronted the possibility that Trump and Putin actually worked out a deal between them in which the US would agree to withdraw from Ukraine and Putin would look the other way on Venezuela. Whether this is accurate doesn’t matter as much as it adds to the suspicions that the whole thing is about large, muscular states overriding and destroying the sovereignty of smaller weaker ones without any qualms, without any concern as to who gets hurt in the process.

“As the US was so concerned about the Monroe Doctrine and its own backyard, perhaps the US might also be concerned about developments in Russia’s backyard, as in Ukraine, making it very obvious that they were trying to set ip [sic] some kind of let’s just say: You stay out of Ukraine or you move out of Ukraine, and, you know, we’ll rethink where we are with Venezuela.” – Fiona Hill to Congress, October 14, 2019

This seems to me to be a good case of strong arm bullying on the cheap without having to sink huge amounts of men, material, and money into the operation. If that is the case AND if it pans out well for Trump, then he has succeeded spectacularly. However, we cannot discount the idea that it will not play the way it was designed and that the aftermath might just be too much to bear. It is almost certain that the real reason for this was to regain control of the massive amounts of crude oil buried there, not to punish small time drug dealers or gang leaders. The question remains as to how the “campesinos” in Venezuela react to the taking of Maduro and the subsequent seizure of property which they might consider their own. If Trump attempts to impose a puppet government for the purpose of streamlining the transfer of that oil to large multinational companies against the popular will of the people, he may find that he has jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

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There are, of course, those niggling, nagging, little things called consequences, many of them as yet unseen.

• 1. The “international rules-based order” so loudly trumpeted by the West as a defense of its policies and actions, and a denunciation of other nations which refused to “follow the rules”, is dead. Kaput. Rigor mortis setting in. There is no more system, only raw, naked power which is used by those who have the means to exercise it against those who cannot defend themselves.² This applies as well to the much-vaunted “rule of law” proclaimed proudly as the basis of the supposed republic which Ben Franklin warned would have to be kept or it would disappear. Gone. Gone forever. It will never return in its previous form. From here on out, it is the law of the jungle–“Kill or be killed.”
• The capture kidnapping and arrest of Nicolas Maduro on specious charges follows the same pattern as set by that in the case of Manuel Noriega in 1989, and will be argued according to the legal doctrine developed at that time. Since the US government never admits wrong-doing and will continue the practice whenever it wants, a precedent has been set which will probably be followed by other nations whenever they can, up to and including the assassination of high government officials, possibly likely even presidents.
• The US and China have only recently “resolved” their differences over the production and distribution of rare earth elements (REE) which are required in the manufacture of many modern items which we can’t live without–smart phones, hi-tech missiles, data centers, satellites, etc. Will China respond to the loss of oil purchased from Venezuela by clamping down even harder on the REE issue?
• Will China issue its own National Security Strategy declaring that the entire east coast of Asia is now to be considered as their sphere of influence and woe to the foreign power which might dare to meddle in the sovereign affairs of the nations within it? What if Xi Jin Ping decided one day to change the name of the Taiwan Strait to the China Strait and forbade adversarial powers to enter therein, all while making threatening noises about what would happen if they did?
• Will foreign backed “terrorist”³ cells be activated within the US? Is that tactic to be reserved until Iran is attacked again? What is to be the defense against those?
• And, of course, the rock-hard reality that we simply cannot afford another long, drawn-out war even if it is in our own backyard.

And on, and on, and on…

This whole thing may blow over with very little damage to show for it, but I have to admit the forebodings I experienced during the Noriega crisis are amplified today. For one thing, at that time, the USSR was on the cusp of collapsing, the vision of America as the only superpower was becoming reality, and the Panama Canal was still widely considered American property. Today? Well, the US is broke, deeply indebted, universally hated, arrogant beyond belief, and led by people who are trying to reclaim her former “glory”⁴ by repeating the mistakes of the past. There is also the fact that in 1989, the US still had some semblance of respectability around the world, while today it is in ragged tatters.

At any rate, regardless what happens in the next few months or years, the probability that life, liberty, and happiness will be jeopardized for the average person in America and around the world has just been increased. Our situation is not getting better and this sort of Rambo-type machismo will not make it any better.

Success breeds confidence which generates hubris which causes overreach which creates mistakes which have consequences which result in disaster which end in downfall.

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1. This brings back memory of the comment George H.W. Bush made after the First Iraq War which he engineered–“It’s a proud day for America. And, by God, we’ve kicked the Vietnam syndrome once and for all.” ↩︎
2. Boiled down to its most basic meaning, this is no different than the argument used by those who champion and practice abortion on demand. It is an aggression committed against the least powerful, most defenseless persons among us by those who refuse to act responsibly. ↩︎
3. One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. It all depends on your perspective. However, all terrorists operate according to one principle: the use of violence and force to attain a political end, which means every single government is a terrorist group. ↩︎
4. I have encapsulated “glory” in quotation marks as a matter of ridicule and contempt. Glory belongs to God alone and He shares with no one. (Isaiah 42:8) Remember this the next time you hear the American flag referred to as “Old Glory”. ↩︎