Tag: covid-19

Covid: Distraction from the Real Danger

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+33.1%. -32.9%. -6.9%

What are these numbers and why do they have any significance to our lives? Respectively, they are the rate of change in the GDP (gross domestic product) of the United States in the third quarter (3Q), the second quarter (2Q), and the first quarter (1Q), in the year 2020. For reference, see here and here.

As the saying goes, give me the good news first.

It looks as if the third quarter GDP had a very substantial increase over the second quarter and in a “normal” year, this would be cause for jubilant celebration. However, there are some things to take into account here which should cause the exuberance to throttle back.

Most of this has been caused, not by an actual increase in productivity within general society, but by extraordinary government spending related to the Covid-19 crisis. For example, stimulus checks sent to everyone have been received and spent, skewing the percentages and making it appear that the country is in the recovery stage. However, that “shot in the arm” has (so far) been a singular event and due to a deadlocked government probably will not be repeated any time soon.

Of course, miracles do happen and it is possible that Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell will come to agreement, shake hands, er, I mean, bump elbows, and congratulate themselves for a job well done. Right, and pigs fly too! At least, though, I am partly correct. They will congratulate themselves, whether the job is well done or not.

If we don’t get another round of stimulus and Joe Biden gets to impose a “very dark winter” because of the panic and hysteria surrounding the Corona Monster, we will likely see a substantial drop in the economy, if not in the 4Q 2020, then almost certainly in 1Q and 2Q 2021.

But, enough of the prognostications anyway. Let’s get back to the actual percentages and explore these from a purely mathematical perspective.

Assume that the economy at the beginning of the year 2020 had a base value of 100. Using the reported GDP drop of 6.9% for the first quarter means that on April 1, 2020, the economy had a base value of 93.1. In the second quarter, the economy contracted an additional 32.9% from that new value. This resulted in a base value on July 1 of only 62.47, which translates to an economic loss from the first of the year of almost 38%.

But, you say, the economy rebounded 33.1% in the third quarter, so we’re almost back to where we were at the beginning of the year. Not so fast, though, since mathematics doesn’t work that way. Keep in mind that we are not dealing with simple numbers, but percentages, and 33.1% of the base value at the end of the second quarter is only 62.47. Therefore, multiplying the base value (62.47) by the percentage increase (33.1) produces an increase of only 20.68 (rounded), which added to the base value results in a total economy of 83.15, or an overall loss of almost 17% from the total economy at the start of the year.

Realistically, in order to bring the economy at the end of 2020 back to where it was at the beginning would require another increase of around 20% in the GDP through the fourth quarter, which is not likely to happen. Most of the 3Q increase was due to government intervention and, since that intervention has not been seen in the 4Q, it seems probable that any increase in GDP will be severely scaled back and may actually show up in the negative column.

Mix in the all-too-likely spectre of officially ordered lockdowns by power-hungry presidents, governors, mayors, and county health departments which will have the immediate effect of throwing vast numbers of persons out of work, drastically reducing their productivity, and the amount of money they have to spend. It should be apparent that the economy is on very shaky ground.

And we thought 2020 was bad. A few years (quarters?) from now, we will call these the Good Old Days.

Rapid Rise in Numbers: Pushback Gaining Strength

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Update on the Great Barrington Declaration. For reference to my take on this important document, see The Sweet Smell of Freedom.

Since my post was published one week ago, the number of scientists and doctors who have signed it has risen from over 27, 000 to near 39, 000, with an attendant number of more than 500, 000 members from the general public. Keep in mind that this petition was only first published on October 4th, slightly less than two weeks ago.

Ahhhhh! The sleeping giant of the silent majority is starting to awaken and push back against this evil scheme which has sapped so much of our social energy. I love it!

On a different note, perhaps we should explore why social media in the form of Google is trying to suppress this information. Spiked Online has raised this question in an article worth the few minutes it takes to read.

One of the slogans the Covid Aberration has engendered is seen on signs all over: “Stay Strong”. It’s almost as if we are caught in the grip of an overwhelmingly powerful monster which is going to destroy us all unless we remain resolute and steadfast in our quest to conquer it. Well, yes, we are and will, but it is not the Omnipotent Corona Monster we’re going to defeat, but the devious and shameful machinations which have been foisted on us in the form of lies, lock-downs, and unconstitutional mandates.

For me, staying strong is not good enough. Not unlike the mythical Greek wrestler Antaeus who became stronger every time he touched the ground, it is my intention to become stronger and more determined than ever to beat this blatant attempt to subjugate society under the rule of a few people who are seeking to control everyone and everything.

Stay strong, get stronger! Draw strength from being beaten down and rise more powerful than ever. We can do this.

Contrast this with the message from the opposing side–“Stay safe, stay home.” To which I can only reply, “Stay safe, stay home, stay weak and ineffectual. Starve to death.”

Straight from the Horse’s Mouth

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On August 26, 2020, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) had this to say about deaths in the US associated with the Covid-19 corona virus. The quote can be found in the Co-morbidities section about halfway down the page.

“For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.” (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm)

Don’t take my word for it, read it yourself.

According to the report, there were 161, 392 deaths from the week ending February 1, 2020 to  August 22, 2020. Out of this number, 6%, or about 9, 684 died from corona exclusively. All the rest died from other causes with corona complications, but not from corona alone. About 80% of these were 65 years of age or older. An additional 12% were between the ages of 55-64, with the numbers steadily dropping as younger ages are computed. This simply verifies what was previously known—that Covid-19 is a serious threat to old people and little more than a nuisance to young adults and children.

Anyone who studies the chart can see that some co-morbidities weigh prominently in the numbers: heart disease, high blood pressure, respiratory disease, pneumonia, obesity, diabetes, etc. All of these are known killers or complicating factors by themselves, even without the corona virus, especially in elderly people. This leads us to the logical deduction that many of these people probably would have died within a short time anyway if they had NEVER contracted the virus.

In another chart (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm), the CDC claims that the average number of deaths per day from all causes is about 8000.  Since the first of the year 2020 to the present (240 days +/-), there have been 1, 920, 000 +/- deaths in the US. Of these, less than 10, 000 are attributed to the corona virus exclusively or about ½ of 1 per cent of the total. Out of the total number of Americans in the US (328, 000, 000 +/-), less than 10, 000 have died FROM the virus or about 1 out of every 33, 000 people. At this rate, Ravalli County would have had almost exactly 1.33 deaths FROM corona so far in 2020, while the state of Montana would have suffered the deaths of about 33 people.

Because of this we have destroyed the economy, ordered everyone to go inside their homes and shut the doors, created an anti-social environment by coercing people to stay distant from each other, fostered a belief that a scrap of cloth over our faces will keep us safe, triggered an unreasonable atmosphere of fear and terror within society, and allowed “officials” to exercise tyrannical control over our lives. Because of this?

Covid-19 is real. That is true and is not disputed. It does pose a danger to some people, but we need to keep our heads clear about this. It is not and never was the existential threat it was promoted to be. We need to stop treating it as if it were.

Action and Reaction: The Consequences to Come, Part 2

Roger Mitchell1 Comment

To mask or not to mask? That is the question of the day. My apologies to William Shakespeare.

On May 26, 2020, I posted a Letter to the Editor in the Bitterroot Star (https://bitterrootstar.com/2020/05/action-and-reaction-the-consequences-to-come/ ), in which I asked some questions about what was going to happen as a result of the reaction, both official and unofficial, to the corona virus pandemic.

We are beginning to find out and it’s not looking good.

When 2Q GDP numbers came out recently, we learned that the American economy had contracted 32.9% annualized from the same period in 2019. This was the largest and steepest drop in history, far eclipsing even the worst of the Great Depression of the 1930’s. This came on the heels of the 1Q GDP contraction of 6.9% from the 1Q 2019. What is interesting is that the economy in early March was still registering a slight amount of growth, but essentially collapsed in the last half of the month, coinciding neatly with the extreme lockdown of the country.

Wile E. Coyote, anyone?

Projections and predictions are that the 3Q GDP figures will show up to a 15% increase over 2Q, but this is still a precipitous drop from 2019. Of course, it should be noted that projections and predictions are just that—guesses and estimates at best. It is entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that the economic losses will accelerate in the 3Q, due in large part to the zealousness of “officials” to destroy the economy based on what appears in hindsight to be nothing more serious than a “bad flu season.”

In the meantime, we fight with each other over bits of cloth covering our faces.

Let me put it in plain English so that everyone can understand it. It is the destruction of the economy and the accompanying societal breakdowns which are the existential threats to our way of life. Compared to what is coming, Covid-19 is a sideshow.

Where we go from here is not certain, but my guess (projection, prediction) is that it is going to be a rough, wild ride.

The Corona Thing: Wierder and Wierder

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This whole corona thing is coming unglued.

First item—Donald Trump is now urging everyone to wear a mask. See here for details.

“We are asking everybody, when you are not able to socially distance, wear a mask,” Trump said. “Whether you like the mask or not, they have an impact.”

In addition to this bomb, Anthony Fauci was not invited to the latest press conference. How strange is that? Is he being sidelined or moved out? One can only hope.

Next, apparently the DHS (Dept. of Homeland Security) is having nightmares about all this face mask hysteria. It’s not good for digital facial recognition, which anybody with common sense would have realized a long time ago. Yeah, it used to be that only robbers of banks and convenience stores wore masks to cover their faces. The DHS, however, is a bloated bureaucracy and is just now starting to understand that things might be getting out of hand.

“As the general public in the United States argues about whether or not we should be wearing masks to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, law enforcement officials are concerned that facial recognition software could be thwarted, and possibly even broken by people wearing masks.”

Well, duh! Did you get that? Facial recognition software could be thwarted and possibly even broken by people wearing masks. Doggone, I may have to change my stance and start wearing a face mask. Anything which slows down or derails the growth of State Security (Stasi) is something I can support and may even participate in.

The really interesting question now, though, is what will all the Trump supporters do. Will they start wearing face masks because the Donald said they should or will they continue to pooh-pooh the issue? Will they now view him as a traitor to the cause?

Even more interesting is what the TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) victims will do. Will they automatically reverse their position and abandon the device? After all, the mantra for the last 3-1/2 years has been to “Resist!” It seems logical that the Left would ditch the mask now that Trump has come out of the closet in favor of it.

Miracles do happen, but this one seems like a stretch to me. More than likely, the Right will simply say he’s been bought off and compromised, while the Left will say that he’s finally seen the light and will push even harder.

“May you live in interesting times” is the ancient Chinese blessing curse. The time we live in has just taken a more lively turn.

Keep your head. Maintain your peace. Ride it out.

Conquer the Fear

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“Fear is the main source of superstition, and one of the main sources of cruelty. To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom.” — Bertrand Russell–Unpopular Essays (1950) “Outline of Intellectual Rubbish”

“…if we let things terrify us, then life is not worth living.” — Seneca

The fear is palpable. It can be seen anywhere…and everywhere. Ordinary, average people covering their faces with whatever can be called a mask. Signs and placards telling shoppers to maintain a “safe” distance between themselves and others. Non-stop “news” reports which keep the crisis constantly in view. Government officials declaring lockdowns. Model predictions presented as absolute proof that these actions are necessary. Constantly updated numbers which “prove” that the threat is existential. The ever-present and growing possibility of mass vaccination—voluntary or ordered. And on and on…

The worst thing about Covid-19 is not the virus itself, but the fear, panic, and hysteria it generates. We have become afraid of something which most of us will never encounter in any meaningful, personally detrimental way. We have allowed our fear to foster suspicion of everyone around us and to drive us apart. Humans are social creatures, but we have become anti-social and antagonistic toward others—not because they ARE a threat to our lives, but because we think that they MIGHT be. Because of our fear, we are encouraging and condoning actions which would have been unimaginable just a few short years ago. We have been spooked. We have been reduced to fighting with each other over a scrap of cloth. 

This brings up a question. Why are we afraid? There are any number of things that could be trotted out to answer this question, but ultimately only one explains it fully—we are afraid to die. We have never come to grips with the certainty that our lives are going to end sometime. We avoid death like the plague, pardon the pun, and simply refuse to countenance the idea that we are mortal. Life is a preparation for death and to paraphrase Seneca, if we let death terrify us, then we will not live. 

Life, however, is also about potential and what we can become in the time we are here. All of us are capable of more than we realize, but when we allow fear to consume our thoughts and dictate our actions, we become paralyzed and incapable of reaching our potential…or even coming remotely close to it. This is one of the great tragedies of life—that we have such enormous capacity and accomplish so little. A side note to this is that the little we do accomplish is often done, not because we recognize our potential and reach for it, but out of a sense of self-defense, in other words, because we are afraid. 

Supposedly, as modern, enlightened people, we have overcome the superstitions which afflicted our ignorant ancestors. The events of the last several months, however, should have put that belief to bed. We are just as fearful as they were, creating our own superstitions and, consequently, have become cruel in our own way. 

Conquer the fear. It is the only way forward.

[This essay was first published as a Letter to the Editor in the Bitterroot Star, a small, local newspaper in Stevensville, Montana]

Corona Reactions and a Reality Check

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The essay below is my response to a comment posted in the conversation at one of Bionic Mosquito’s recent blog posts, Shaming the Wise. This concerns the Corona virus hysteria and the reactions of people to it. You will have to go to the Comments section to pick up the thread. I will not reproduce it here. If you are not reading Bionic Mosquito, you should be.

This can be broken down into subsets.

1. Those who created and fed the narrative.

2. Those who bought into it and panicked.

3. Those who resisted and kept a clear head.

It can be assumed that those in category #1 will never admit to any wrong on their part. If justice were to prevail, many of those would be hauled into court, confronted with the evidence against them, convicted by a jury, and punished severely. It is also safe to assume this will not happen. There is nothing to be done except to resist them in every way possible.

Those in category #3 will have to admit any wrong on their part ONLY if the Corona Thing actually does become a full-blown, extremely deadly infection on the scale of medieval bubonic plague, which really was a killer. Should that happen, they will be left with nothing except to confess their sin to their neighbors and their God before they die. If Covid-19 fades away (as it looks like it will) and some semblance of normal life returns, they can stand firm in their convictions and beliefs. They should take advantage of the confusion and disarray by promoting the truth about the matter.

It is those in category #2 who will have to make a choice:

I. Admit to being gulled and giving into the hysteria.

II. Refuse to admit anything, no matter how much evidence is piled up against the narrative.

Those of the first part (I) will mimic the Grinch. “Whew, really lost my cool there. Carry on!” They may or may not change their mode of thinking and will probably have numerous excuses for acting the way they did. Some of them may look deep into their souls, not like what they see, courageously face the sordid facts about themselves, change their ways, and make significant strides along the path to freedom. For those, one particular Bible verse applies:

“If we confess our sins, He is faithful and just to forgive us our sins and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.” – 1 John 1:9 (NKJV)

On the other hand, there will be those who will admit to being sucked in, but will laugh off any personal change as unimportant, preferring instead to carry on in the same manner they did before the crisis. The repercussions to that attitude can be captured in one thought:

“Then he said, ‘This is what I will do: I will tear down my barns and will build bigger ones, and there I will store up all my grain and my goods. Then I will say to myself, “You have plenty of good things laid up for many years. Take it easy. Eat, drink, and be merry!”’ But God said to him, ‘You fool! This very night your life will be required of you. Then who will own what you have accumulated?’…”–Luke 12:18-20 (Berean Study Bible) (see also Ecclesiastes 8:14-15)

Those of the second part (II) will adamantly assert that Corona really was (and is) an existential, deadly threat which was averted ONLY because of the heavy-handed actions on the part of governments world-wide. There is little hope that these people will ever see the truth. They are blind, willfully blind, and will march in lockstep according to whatever decree Caesar issues. There is nothing to be gained by attempting to persuade them otherwise. They will die in their chains, thinking themselves safe. They have no wish to be free. Pity them, but don’t waste your time, breath, or peace on them.

P.S.–I concur with Bionic that Lew Rockwell has done an incredible work in methodically promoting the other side of the argument. He is to be commended. Thank you!

The End of the World. I Feel Fine.

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“Bad news on the doorstep, I couldn’t take one more step.” That line from Don McLean’s 1972 smash hit, American Pie, sums up the current world condition quite well.

Today, there is such an abundance of bad news—corona virus, stock market meltdown, layoffs, quarantines, lockdowns, threats of martial law, etc., that anyone could be forgiven if it seemed that another step was impossible. Yet, life goes on, in spite of everything which appears to be destroying our accustomed and familiar way of life.

How do we go on, then? What changes will we need to make or be made for us? How will we adapt to those changes? What will be different in the future? These are all valid questions for which answers are needed and which everyone must seriously consider. There are a lot of things which we don’t know and can not answer, but there are some which require nothing more than common sense to understand.

1. You are in control of yourself and the way you respond to the situation around you. Maintain that.

2. Don’t panic or give into the palpable fear. Keep a level head about you. Stay calm. This alone will allow you to maintain some semblance of normality in your day-to-day living.

3. Don’t believe everything you read or hear, especially about the corona virus. There are so many conflicting stories, reports, “expert” opinions, and official declarations readily available that it is difficult to determine what is true and what is false. Use your own good judgment about what is best for you. Corona may be an existential threat. It may be much ado about nothing. Or somewhere in between, which I suspect, but I do not know where to draw a conclusion.

4. It is not the end of the world, especially as concerns the stock market and the economy. Humanity has experienced financial collapses like this before and survived. Somehow, someway, we will work our way through the current one as well and another generation will be born to carry on.

5. Keep a positive attitude. While the situation may seem disastrous (and disaster is likely to happen), it is important that we maintain a positive outlook about the future. Depression, anxiety, and fear will drag you down. Don’t allow your circumstances to get the best of you. Remember, you are in control of yourself and the way you respond to your situation.

With all that said, it is important that we face some truth honestly. Our world has drastically changed within the last few months and, in spite of all the talk about a return to “normalcy” once the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, it is quite sure that many things we took for granted yesterday will not be in place tomorrow. Things will be different, some dramatically, some less so, but the equation has had another factor introduced into it and the implications of that are still to be seen and worked out.

Get used to the idea that the old system we are familiar with is being dismantled and another one will be erected in its place. There will be major changes along the way, both positive and negative. One positive change we can look forward to is the willingness to rely more on ourselves and our families, neighbors, friends, our faith, and our local community. If this actually happens (I believe it will), we will learn to depend less on distant, authoritarian governments, large faceless corporations, and bureaucratic institutions to provide for what we need in our daily lives. We will also learn what is really important and what is not.

All of us are going to participate in this, whether we like it or not. We have the opportunity to assist in shaping the economy and society which will rise out of the carnage and destruction happening around us. Everyone can participate in bringing this about, wherever we are, by changing our attitude from “Somebody ought to do something!” to one of “What can I do to help?” Look around you. There is plenty to do. Find a place where you can make a difference and get to it. Start close to home, branch out from there.

A better world awaits.